There is the potential for some heavy rain this morning but as of yesterday some earlier rain hadn't materialised so we'll work on the basis that the Going will be on the soft side of good and may get quite soft.

 

I'm keen to look at all form including those that have run at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago but there are some significant horses in here who missed Cheltenham completely and were not entered and others pulled out when the ground turned heavy after heavier than expected rain on already watered Going. 

 

THE LAST DAY has the benefit of being a Course and Distance winner, very lightly raced and an unlucky faller last time. I'm as sure as sure that I can be; that it's been targeted at this race by an in form Trainer and Jockey combo and with luck in running it will surely go close and won't mind whatever falls from the sky in terms of Going. 

 

Frero Banbou did run at Cheltenham and I really fancied it there but it was disappointing and I'm not convinced this track will suit it whatever the Going. Paul Nicholls runs Dolos and THYME WHITE and whilst Dolos is more exposed but in with a good chance and probably aimed at this THYME WHITE is less exposed and was very well fancied for Cheltnham before being pulled out on the day. Nicholls comments that he thought the horse was very well prior to Cheltenham but that he rested him and scrubbed him off and has prepared him for this since are  typically transparent and whilst I fear Dolos, I think THYME WHITE can go very close.

 

I'm then torn by a couple more, BEFORE MIDNIGHT is another who skipped Cheltenham for this race and BUN DORAN who arrives fresh and in form but who hasn't run here since disappointing in 2018. If I have to choose now between the pair  it would just be BEFORE MIDNIGHT, but I'll leave you to assess the price of Bun Doran closer to the race as I think too that the more it rains the more BUN DORAN is value and if Soft would be a shrapnel bet.

 

Of the remainder the most unexposed and fresh and interesting due to connections is Zarkareva so any late surge for that should be noted by those who like to play late.

 

TIP - Thyme White / Tracker - The Last Day (see notes re Before Midnight (G/S)  and Bun Doran - Soft or Softer) 

 

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4.00 FOX HUNTERS - Not a race to get too involved in but at the prices I would suggest shrapnel e/w bets on Complete Sizing ; Reikers Island and Clondaw Westie all in the 40-50/1 range in that order if you can get enhanced place Odds to 5th or 6th place (it's not a handicap!).