This is the time of year when horses who tend to win in turn and have won a race tend to start reverting back to type and start the process of gobbling up any penalties to start the next season on a decent mark. It's also the time when you can cast an eye on anything well handicapped that's running OK off a reducing mark who may have something to offer as its turn is near. This may be that type of scenario here.

 

Howaya Aoife won last time out at a big price, a frustrating one as we'd tracked this horse for several seasons and many will recall and given up on it basically but lessons learned are fine as long as they are not repeated, can it rack up a sequence, a long career suggests not! The obvious one to beat is Wheres Frankie who is on a 4 timer having won off 89 and 98 over hurdles and 89 over fences and at around 2/1 I'm willing to wager it won;t win again today off a mark of 103, so happy to take it on.

 

Bold Emporer may need the run and whilst I fear Dancing Jeremy, I think it may need somewhat softer Going than this and its 8lbs above last winning Chase mark. Millen To One is another one I fear, it drops in Class a bit but really needs to jump better and get in to a rhythm, its the one I came nearest to tipping but haven't so take that on board and if there was a non-runner amongst the final 3, he'd be my reserve. She's Some Doll, who I have dabbled with in the past pulled up lame last time and I'd need to see a fit and healthy run before investing again. The trip is a niggle for Champagne Beauty who is otherwise a solid horse in decent form and another on the "danger list".

 

I think though it's time for SCHOOL LANE to win again. An Autumn winner off 94 before it got really deep ground wise, a Course and Distance winner to boot and its run well enough whilst getting back to a mark below 99 and I think this represents a very good each way bet to enhanced 4th place.

 

OSCAR ROMERO is another I have a quiet confidence in today at really nice e/w Odds. Its won Handicap Hurdles at this trip and at 3 miles off marks of 95 and 106, has taken oK to fences and seemed to be really getting to grips with them last time. I thin it has a sporting e/w chance here and will invest accordingly.

 

At really big odds I can't resist a bit of shrapnel on ORION D'AUBRELLE. A very lightly raced horse but one who hasn't delivered anything since winning or Willie Mullins in 2018 over fences which got it an unrealistic handicap mark of 135 from which it basically had no chance. I strongly endorse the view we all share here at SP2A that every horse can win a race when it's off a realistic handicap mark and off a mark of 109. I think this horse can win a prize and may be one to follow if it drops further. The main reason I'm investing today though is that on its last run over 3 miles it did show a lot more zip and promise, racing prominently until 3 out before making a jumping error, that would have been at 2 and a half to 2 miles 5 furlong range and I would hope they'll run prominently again, give the horse its head and give it a sporting chance.

 

 

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Its early doors for 3 year olds but the 7 furlongs here is run round 2 pretty sharp right hand bends and unless you ping the start out wide it can favour those Drawn LOW.

 

Level Pitch for Jim Bolger is the market fancy but has yet to really show any worthwhile Course form, there may be whispers as for the price but I'm happy to take it on.

 

Drawn perfectly in Stall 1 is Jessies ITS SNOWING (a very apt name for some of you over in the mainland I gather); Its got decent form and every chance of running a place at least with a big tactical advantage.

 

Areille is one that can win early races but the trip is a niggle and although Mercurial and Independent Expert are AW fit they do have poor draws to overcome. 

 

I am quite sweet on Jessies 2nd string ECOUTEZ who should have no excuses from Stall 3 and well worth a play to enhanced places at the e/w odds and also I'll have a shrapnel bet from Stall 2 on TA NA LA who has shown mild promise as a juvenile and should get the trip and may not have a better chance to get some enhanced place money all season.