AINTREE - GRAND NATIONAL 5.15 G3 C1 Handicap Chase - 4 miles 2 and 1/2 furlongs - 40 run - Good to Soft (drying but watered) - few spots possible mid morning.

 

Thanks to the joys and benefits of Zoom, we got all of our Tipster together on a couple of evenings this week to talk through and analyse this race.

 

As we've said before it's like no other and you can do all the analysis possible, be extremely confident and then see hours of hard graft bought down or unseating at the first. It's a race where you need as much luck as judgement and although many a Tipster and a multitude of rogue Tipsters have lived off a "National winner" many a time, it is in reality for us and for any serious punter, "just another race", so we'll limit Staking to 5 points in total with 5 x Trackers at 1/2 point each way and a couple of shrapnel bets. 

 

We worked through every runner, reached a consensus on most and graded them in our minds as "no hopers" / "unlikely winners" / "serious dangers" and ultimately "the cream of the crop".  Lets cover off each group by naming each horse.

 

We discounted in the first tranche with the brief reason why, Lostintranslation (trip) ; Mount Ida (trip and not good enough); Samcro (health issues and trip) ; Romain De Senam (not good enough); Coko Beach (ground and not good enough); Top Ville Ben (not good enough), Class Conti (trip and form); Noble Yeates (trip) and Poker Part (trip and form). If any of those were to win or finish in the first 6 home, we'd doff our collective caps and scratch our heads!

 

In the next trance were Two For Gold (trip) ; Santini (form and trip) ; Freewheelin Dylan (form) ; Cloth Cap (health and form); Agusta Gold (trip) ; Blaklion (trip but possible pace angle); Domaine De L'isle (form overall). In this group we did think a couple worth of a heads up, Brahma Bull and Anibale Fly we can't consider on current form but the types who could plod on and finish just outside the top 5 or 6 and some enhanced place money if the race falls apart, Commodore, who we feel is very much one to follow for next year in this race and De Rasher Counter, who is a genuine dark horse and one of the few who could deliver something off a long injury break.

 

Next came those who just missed the final cut and starting perhaps controversially with the 2021 winner Minella Times who we don't see figuring this time Good Boy Bobby (not quite good enough); Dingo Dollar who is mildly interesting on some old form and who was considered longer than most in this group, Deise Aba (Course and over all ability) and Fortescue (possibly another one who will be better next year but a genuinely nice prospect). A few too who have been widely touted and confidently tipped by some in, School Boy Hours, Burrows Saint, Kidisart and Death Duty.  They all have understandable chances logical but not quite for us today and we'd not be surprised by bold runs from any of them.

 

That left us with a final list of around 10-11 horses and just missing the final cut are, Delta Work (solid form and impressive in the X-Country, many have tied in the form to Tiger Roll but the heart says one thing about how good Tiger Roll may now be, the head says something differently and it was a tough X-C race just 3 weeks ago. Enjoy D'Allen something of a trends horse and fancied by many and ultimately it is the stamina question that just put us off this one, Fiddlerontheroof another strongly fancied from a Yard that we know can ready one but who hasn't fired on full cylinders for a couple of years and whilst it would be hugely emotional win for the Tizzard family, its that running thread of a stamina concern for it today. Longhouse Poet is the Irish talking horse as a progressive horse and aimed at the race, it wasn't stopping in the Thyestes but not proven stamina conclusively and that was the determining factor for us and finally Run Wild Fred who has a very solid each way chance and IF any of the 6 we will invest in didn't run , would be the late reserve.

 

So now on to the selections-: (4 x Trackers and 2 x Shrapnel so 5 points invested in total)

 

SNOW LEOPARDESS - has a Course win and has run right to the line over 3 miles and 6 furlongs. She's in the form of her life and ticks every box including the "story" that always seems to be tagged to something that wins this race. With luck in running there don't seem to be any chinks (The Advisor)

 

ANY SECOND NOW - proved it can jump these fences and likes the course last year. Was literally brought to a  standstill in that race and yet finished as well as anything. Has clearly been aimed at this race and looks to be peaking at just the right time. The Trainer knows how to get one right for the day and impossible to leave out (Sean)    

 

ECLAIR SURF - the form of its win at Warwick and run in The Eider has been more than franked and the horse has avoided Cheltenham to come here fit as a fiddle but freshened up. Trainer Emma Lavelle is still for some reason somewhat under the radar but as talented as any with the right horse and lots to like about this horse. (Ian)

 

ESCARIA TEN - one that just feels like it's been quietly aimed at this race whilst others have had more of the spotlight. It's got form at 3 miles 6 furlongs and has run strongly through the line suggesting the latent stamina is there, quiet confidence for a big run (Sean)

 

Those are the 4 x 1/2 point each way Tracker horses.

 

We'll then have 1/4 point e/w shrapnel on this pair-:

 

DISCORAMA - ran well to a point in this last year off a very truncated and difficult preparation health and fitness wise. Has been aimed specifically at the race again but with a much clearer passage and will undoubtedly be fitter and better prepared. I think it's almost hidden away and overlooked by many so-called experts and I'll be very disappointed if its not in the first 4-5 with a clear round of jumping (Ian)

 

MIGHTY THUNDER - almost a forgotten horse from a Yard with an excellent tradition in the race. Looks completely out of form with respiratory problems but has quietly had a wind operation. If it doesn't work or hasn't worked we'll soon know , if it restores confidence and the horse can run pain free and get in to a rhythm, then just look at it's CV. A winner at 4 miles and 4 miles 2 furlongs, will love the ground and well worth a small e/w bet based on the logic and not just the heart. (NORTHERN)