Punchestown 4.50
SEAN - Punchestown 4.50 Handicap Hurdle - Grade B - 18 run - Good to Yielding.
There is a 30% chance of a bit of rain in the morning and the course will have been well prepared and sensibly watered with a dry week forecast so I doubt there will be any excuses Going wise.
They will use the conventional (not inner) Hurdles track that is quite undulating and favours prominent running style but there are a few who could ensure a fast pace so we've got to be mindful its not too suicidal a pace up front.
At the head of the market Ardla brings potential but on handicap debut you have to take a lot on trust. GLAN is very highly fancied, a progressing mare in form and up 7lbs for a cosy win last time out. At anything over 5/1 it represents each way value and if the market swings for it nearer race time 5/1 may look incredible value so I'm suggesting an each way bet and that you take any early price above 5/1 for the Elliott team.
In its last race it was less favoured than the Mullins horse Farout who ran too freely and threw its chance away. Thet tongue tie it today but it was disappointing at Cheltenham too and although if it settles it could be a huge danger there are a few too many questions for me to back it at the price. Elliott also runs ESKYLANE who needed its recent return run and who carries top weight. IF the assessor has just tapped the edge off GLAN then this one could easily take advantage and the fact that it has Davy Russell in the saddle and some solid Course and Distance form only heightens my interest. I've a hunch Davy is going to announce his retirement in the next 7-10 days and what better way than to ride a few nice winners this week!
Plenty of others have decent claims including a few at the big-priced end of the market.
I wouldn;t rule out a big run from HURRICANE CLIFF its been a runner up here and a winner at Naas off marks in the mid 120's, then highly tried but the Course form and a mark of 126 and the booking of Aiden Coleman suggests a small interest on the exchanges might be worth a flutter. In From The Cold and Elegant Lass can not be totally discounted but the former may be better on the Flat and Elegant Lass is surely been aimed for a summer campaign and needs to lose a few pounds too.
Sit Down Lucy looks solid if unspectacular off this mark and Gua Du Large is one I looked at for a long time to be honest. It has some collateral form that has it finishing very close to Glan but I've a suspicion it just needs a further furlong or two now and often does its best work too late. IF the pace is suicidal it's one to press the £2 button on at big odds in running in the first half of the race as it will stay better than most and I do fear it in a fast paced race.
Felix Desjy has plenty of Course form and would be the romantic winner but the legs have too many miles on the clock may be for a race of this type now on Good ground. Tax For Max and Great Bear have solid claims at the weights and neither would be complete surprises if popping up but there are few more I think worth an investment.
At the prices I think that HEARTS ARE TRUMPS is cracking value. A win on its only previous visit here way back in 2018 off a mark of 128. It then didn't win again until April 2021 at Galway off a mark of 131 having run with merit numerous times in between but basically not that well handicapped. It gets 7lbs for 7 lengths from its last run against Glan and just looked to be running back into some kind of form and bearing in mind those winning marks looks to have a very sporting chance at a nice price here off a mark of 129.
The other one I can't totally discount is STILL STANDING a better Flat horse so far but some unexposed Hurdle form on a few forays into this discipline and an eye catching Maiden win at Galway. I always like to look at Maiden/Novice form and look collaterally at what horses that were beaten or in the same race have achieved since and then frame my own mark as a benchmark as being competitive BEFORE I look at the official mark. On some solid collateral form from that Novice win I wrote down 120, and that's bang on the official mark, so I think this IS a dark horse worth closer inspection.
TIP - GLAN / Trackers - Hearts Are Trumps + Eskylane / Shrapnel - Still Standing (don't forget to watch for pace in running and Gua Du Large if the pace is silly quick)
