A competitive affair and plenty in with chances on the outer and more galloping Hurdles Track.

 

Pictures of Home is favourite for Ted Walsh, was 5th of 17 on run here last time, but yet to prove stamina in these conditions at the trip and I think too short on that basis. Shar Whats Therush is next in the current market and a big danger, fell on only previous Course run, runner up at just under 3 miles at Fairyhouse last time and a bigger danger than the favourite on that basis but not in my top 2 at the end of the reckoning. Big danger though!

 

Thunderosa is an ex P2P horse with recent form figures of 3333 - obvious chance on that basis but lacks the proven Course form others have but certainly one to fear. Smiths Girl has shown promise over a half mile less, but you'd have to take a fair chunk of stamina on trust, Difficult Decision has won twice at Limerick and Clonmel, going up from 92 to 101 and placed off 110 at Leopardstown last time, rates a danger but might just be in the grip of the handicapper now.

 

Capacurry Zak can never be fully written off here, Paper Lantern had some very good Handicap Hurdle form before a 1023 days break and be interesting to see how he goes here, and Ask and Answer whose Chase career seems to have fallen apart, literally, is on a nice Hurdles mark but can't be completely written off.

 

I'll bank on what we know though, Course form, proven at the trip, proven in the Going and consistent performances. EXCITING OSCAR has Course and Distance winning form off a mark of 92 in November, then placed off 100 at Fairyhouse and back here off that mark holds every chance. LEE VALLEY LEGACY is just so consistent 3rd of 18 here in possibly a better race off this mark and one you can usually bank on to run up to its mark and ticks the Going and Trip boxes...

 

 

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A host of seemingly out of form Elliott horses. Very few of them will be wanting to win this to spaff reducing marks, and most have a high enough mark to get guaranteed entry on the day of the actual race if Elliott wants it. Sums up one of the big problems for progressive long distance Chasers in Ireland.

 

Of those Roaring bull did us a great favour earlier in the season placing at 66/1, any of the others could "pop up" but I think the best each way value and the one who has shown glimmers of form more than once best suited to conditions today is OUT SAM....we'll leave him on the table and come back to him later.

 

Sean has struggled to find the progressive types, upped in trip all season, which is most unusual, so I have come in to look at the race "with a different pair of eyes" and have to say, I don't think the top 5 in the market, including some progressive types are any great value.

 

The Big Dog is unexposed sure enough but not sure about the price based on form,Midnight Maestro is up 9lbs for a very impressive win over 7 furlongs less than todays trip so definitely progressive but not even any 3 mile P2P form, Discordantly who unseated last time won over 6 furlongs shorter at Galway off 132, placed at Navan over 3 miles off 142, so less trip and Going concerns, and certainly the one at the top of the market I fear the most.

 

Mayhenna won a big race in the Autumn, but probably needs better ground and may just be aimed at the main Event in the Spring, and Nick Lost is another very interesting type for Henry and Rachel who may not be bottomed out here but have a sighter for the main Event. Fennos Storm is mildly interesting on 3 miles P2P form at a price as is Thermosticles for a yard coming in to better form, who needed seasonal debut but so far best at 3 miles. I'd rate him 5th on my short list of 6 before arriving at a final 4. Castle Oliver is in my Cheltenham Tracker, probably needs this and not won beyond 2 and a half miles but long been one I've highlighted for Cheltenham and of the rest only the Flat bred Born by The Sea really came into serious consideration with those above.

 

With OUT SAM already covered my top 3 in order of preference are-:

 

SCREAMING COLOURS who steps up in grade but has good Course form, nice racing weight, not really got half the stamina doubts that I have about other progressive types and I think a hore who'll be in the race to win it, and would need to be placed at least to get into the main Event. The same applies to SE MO LAOCH some nice Course form, no excuses over the trip or the Going and the addition of first time Blinkers to just focus the horse are very eye-catching.

 

Finally of the three O'Brien horses, I think HIGH SPARROW whose prominent running style should suit the race can take the field along and go a long long way in to the race, if allowed a blow could take a hell of a lot of catching and as a Course winner, I prefer to stable mate Smoking Gun at a similar price who has less proven stamina and ended up 6th on my overall list.

 

TRACKERS - Screaming Colours / Se Mo Laoch / High Sparrow - looking for net profit at enhanced place Odds and a small side bet on OUT SAM of the Elliott contingent