Exeter 3.00 Handicap Chase 3 miles and 54 yards - Class 5 soft / heavy.

 

Good to see racing back at Exeter after a few abandonments and this race features a lot of horses we have picked and analysed many times over the past 2-3 years and lots of collateral form therefore, much of it over course and distance and other mid-winter slogs in the mud.

 

If we start at the top and note that Ballybreen is on a 4 timer, up another 5 lbs, logic, law of averages and the wrath of the handicapper suggests it won't win a 4th, only way to play against this scenario is a small win saver to cover your stake.

 

We then have 4 horses with so much collateral form between themselves and Ballybreen that we could write a novel!

 

KILCREA BRIDGE gets a nice pull with Ballybreen, Blinkers go on today to replace cheek-pieces and it looks to have every chance of getting the better of the favourite. It is roughly level weights with another key protaganist BIG TIME FRANK.

 

What can you say about BIG TIME FRANK other than if any horse deserves to win a race it's this one who has so often found one too good. Repeatedly said and still believe it's the horses running style and nothing disingenuous that sees it go so close but just miss out. Ran much better last time out, runner up AGAIN. Most likely that the handicap mark is now ready and right for another bold bid, gets 2lbs rise for being runner up, and that's the horses problem, the handicapper lumps weight  on despite it not winning. It was runner up in this last year and gets a whopping 28lbs from the narrow winner that day KIWI MYTH.

 

KIWI MYTH is a Course and Distance winner, this race 2019 and lightly raced since and this season. won off 76 last year, off 85 with a 5 lbs Claim this year, so it not as much it rocketing up the weights as BTF coming down the weights. It's easy to say Kiwi Myth can't win on the basis of BTF mark but if you look at Kiwi Myth in the context of the race and its freshness without BTF in the field for one moment; its clear Kiwi Myth is not too badly treated against other rivals.

 

The other most likely protaganist at the head of the market is top weight BIG MEADOW an out and out stayer, very inconsistent and needs an absolute slog. IF they went off a too fast a pace and the race falls apart turning in, this one may be one to back in running if its out the back of the screen as it is clearly most likely to plod on past beaten horses up the steep finishing climb.

 

Of the others, I don't think Inspireus is quite good enough in these conditions. GREAT TEMPO has a very similar profile to yesterday's winner Lee Valley Legacy, a win followed by a poor and inexplicable run, the good form of the Pipe yard nags at you as it's one that if it wins looks so obvious. 

 

Finally, at big odds is GENERAL GIRLING who won for us in an absolute slog in January 2018 at 20/1. Then had a few more decent runs, got injured and had best part of 20 months off. Ran a gallant third when reappearing about 6 weeks ago, then a poor run when may be running again too soon (the bounce??) - the fact the horse loves mud means they probably have to run again this soon to get winter Going, is 13 now and not many more chances, could pop up at very nice Odds, so has to come in to the equation somewhere and may be one to track next November/December if retaining fitness through the summer.

 

A conundrum, the only really interesting betting heat of the day, I want some Net Profit so will play it like this-:

 

small win saver - Ballybreen @ 3/1

Tip at 1 point each way - KILCREA BRIDGE + BIG TIME FRANK

1/2 point e/w Tracker - Great Tempo @ 12/1.

 

I will also watch the race very closely and have a small £2 on Betfair in running on BIG MEADOW....if scenario is as explained.

 

That means of the main analysis I risk Kiwi Myth winning, but will have to take that on the chin and it is just the kind of race that makes NH what it is and a pleasure to try to fathom!