Newmarket 3.00

THE ADVISOR - Newmarket 3.00 Handicap - Class 2 - 1 mile - 13 run - Soft
 
The obvious place to start is with Gosden and Dettori and UNFORGOTTEN who is a worthy favourite on what it's shown so far. The obvious query though is that all of that form is on the AW and the horse makes Turf debut here on Going likely to be on the Soft side of Good and with drying cold winds possibly a bit tacky. It has to be a "win saver" bet for me as everything in the horses pedigree suggests it should handle to Going and may actually improve again on the turf and make in to an exceptionally good Mile Handicapper in all the best races and possibly step up to 10 furlongs in time.
 
With 13 runners though there are enhanced place options so where to turn?. HARSWELL DUKE won very well for us at 10/1 at Doncaster, setting the fractions and winning in the heavy ground it loves and runs best in. The undulations here and the rising ground and the drying ground may not be quite as suitable but you can't deny the form and race fitness so only reluctantly do I leave it out today. I'm VERY keen on BOPEDRO who has also had a run, he may need better ground and in all honesty the Yard haven't yet really fired at all. I suspect that as they get bigger and better each year and move up the "quality scale" it's to be expected that they will ease their way more into the season. I'm convinced BOPEDRO will win nice Saturday Handicaps this season so again reluctantly, I will just leave off the investments sheet for today.
 
Ashky is a Course and Distance specialist but may I think just need this run and some sun to improve, Dutch Decoy also needs better ground but you can't ever discount the stable but I will track this for the better ground and I think it prefers the July Course here. Outbreak brings some race fitness but is another who I think would prefer a firmer surface later in the summer. EMPIRESTATEOFMIND has had a run and likely to put up a very bold show and I just wonder if he needs a few pounds of respite from the handicapper too?  
 
The pair I most like to follow home UNFORGOTTEN are GREATGADIAN and TOSHIZOU. We tipped GREATGADIAN at Doncaster and it ran a pleasing race on ground it didn't ideally want. It's likely to appreciate the better and drying ground here and with the benefit of a run and some headgear I will be very disappointed if its not in the Place money. Roger Fell runs Harswell Duke and TOSHIZOU, another we noted at Doncaster where it ran midfield in the mud. Once again the benefit of the run will help, the Irish form of this one suggests Yielding to Soft, which this most likely is will be less of an outlier for the horse and off a mark of 93 with a good 5lbs Claimer up, its surely capable of running a place with that race fitness advantage kicking in as they need the rising ground at a very nice e/w price.
 
TIPS (1) Unforgotten / (2) Greatgadion / (3) - if you wish to enhanced places - 8 Toshizou @ 16/1