Hereford

Handicap Hurdle - Class 5 - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 16 run - Going Good
 
A tricky race with not a lot of proven form to go on and any number lurking on what could be false marks now handicapping and upped in trip. It's a case of looking either for potential or assessing that actually they are not really very good horses.
 
We'll categorise A New Siege, Crackle Lyn Rosie, The Wire Flyer, Badness Backfires in that category and add Outlaw Jessie James for Tom Lacey and Big Chip and Pin for Christian Williams. It would not be a shock if wither of those showed considerable improvement here and if they went to 16/1 plus you might want to lob a bit of shrapnel.
 
CHECKINFORSQUIRES for the Skeltons looks the one to beat, I think it could go off around 2/1 and if you wish to have a win saver at that price, feel free to do so.
 
The best each way value in the top half of the market may be RUSSIAN EXILE for the Tizzards, runner up at Taunton last time after stepping up in trip, got outpaced a few times over 2 miles, this further little step in Distance looks ideal and it will be very disappointing if not placed in top 3 at the very least.
 
With some enhanced each way place opportunities at very big odds MARY OF DE SORROWS deserves a closer look. Was decent enough rated in mid to high 80's in Ireland, has been running over further and on deeper ground so far here. The UK handicapper tends to give stock horses with proven form in Ireland a mark about 10lbs higher in UK (actually look at Badness Backfires to see what I mean) and the horse has slowly come back down from an inflated mark to a UK mark of 89 with a decent 5lbs Claimer on board. We have to hope it can run up to that Irish form over here and that's yet to be proven, but at a more suitable trip and off this mark at these Odds, cannot pass it by.
 
TRACKERS - Russian Exile + Mary Of De Sorrows (see notes re win saver)