The Spring mIle may give us an indication of Draw Bias and may be a helpful pointer, that though historically has not always been the case as early Pace Bias can be equally important, so it may be worth factoring in the run style best suited in the Spring mIle e.g prominent or hold up to see if there is a distinct bias either way for any late bets.

 

I tend to agree that the Draw bias is so much of a lottery that its best ignored but to have options either side.

 

At bigger odds I think a few could exceed expectations those being the likes of GREATGADIAN, TOSHIZOU, Encourageable, Safe Voyage, Boardman , Eileen Dubh and Helm Rock. I don't think the others will be as suited by the conditions as GREATGADIAN who also has plenty of scope to improve or TOSHIZOU who has some very interesting Irish form and about whom Sean is very keen each way. If you want shrapnel bets those are my thoughts.

 

The market likes Jimi Hendrix who could frankly be anything after a Gelding operation, Baradar who has 7 furlong form on heavy but who is unproven so far at a mile but from a fastly progressive Yard, Wanees who is another horse with plenty of scope to improve and definitely one to follow, Empirestateofmind who is very solid and consistent and Atrium who has solid form in this type of race. All of those are significant dangers as are the pair right at the head of the market AL MUBHIR and AWAAL both from big Yards and seriously fancied. I think given the conditions that a Reverse Forecast and a small win side bet IS the way to go if you wish.

 

With a massive betting market though and significant enhanced places I want to try to find some real value and here are my preference picks in order-:

 

MONTASSIB may be the Haggas second string in the eyes of the market but i think a cracking each way banker in the race. Its best 2 runs have been on soft and it is still progressive and I think over-priced on the basis of the proven soft ground form. BOPEDRO is from the O'Meara year and another with a background in Ireland, recruited from the Jessie Harrington yard and with a winter under its belt I have high hopes for this one in the big 1 mile Festival handicaps this summer. It's won at 7 furlongs on heavy and at a mile and I like it a lot. MAJESTIC from the Channon yard, who won this race last year, seems typical of the Yard and will undoubtedly be ready and fit enough. MIGRATION could well be a Spring horse and didn't reappear last year until the Autumn after some injury issues after a very promising start in similar conditions to today. Its biggest asset will be heavy ground form at 10 furlongs and that proven stamina is something very few others in the race may have, and it's another horse I have earmarked for BIG things in the big Saturday and Festival handicaps in 2023. In addition to those I also like YANIFER who may lack a bit of quality for this but whose Course and Distance winning form in the conditions may see it sneak into an enhanced place.   

 

TIPS (1) Montassib / (2) Bopedro / (3) Majestic / (4) Migration - if you wish (5) Yanifer and see notes on Greatgadian + Toshizou