Haydock 1.45
HAYDOCK 1.45
On a decent-looking Haydock card, this 6 furlong handicap is probably the most competitive race of the fixture. There are currently 16 declared to go to post and, with a dry day forecast, it is difficult to determine exactly what the ground will be like but it is possible the current going could dry out to ‘good to soft’ but still be a little tacky and, therefore, blunt the speed of a few of these.
The market is currently headed by CAPOTE’S DREAM and this 4 year-old has done really well for new connections since coming over from Ireland and dropping back to racing over this trip. He won his first race on turf last time out when winning a class 4 handicap at Windsor and is only 2lbs higher here. He did get a good ride that day, however, from Tom Marquand, who rides again here, having missed the break and did hang badly left across the track towards the finish. The ground was a lot quicker that day than it will be here, however, and he failed to even place on ground slower than good when racing in Ireland.
Challenging Tom Ward’s charge for favouritism at the time of writing is BIELSA. Kevin Ryan’s 6 year-old is bound to prove popular with Leeds United fans and is a horse who has often been well backed when taking to the track. Indeed, he has been sent off as favourite for 8 of his 12 career starts to date and some of those have been big handicaps such as The Portland, The Wokingham and, latterly, a big class 2 affair at York’s Dante meeting earlier this month. He was highly thought off when younger and won 4 of his first 5 starts. He has, however, drawn a blank in 7 outings since and has proved disappointing on more than one occasion. He has had two wind operations in the past year and, whilst there were no signs of improvement after the first, he has run better since the second of these. He finished 2nd at Ascot on seasonal debut, when the ground may have been too quick for him, and then finished 5th at York earlier this month. He went prominently on what was a strong pace and was then badly hampered in the closing stages which probably cost him a position in the placings. He’s down 1lb here and is definitely one to consider.
The last time this race was run, back in 2019, it was won by COLD STARE and he returns here off a mark that is 5lbs lower. The key to this horse, however, is not just his rating but also the ground conditions. He is a horse who’s best form is on soft or, even, heavy going. The ground was heavy when he won this race two years ago and his best runs this season have all come on soft ground. He was 2nd at Thirsk and ran well for a long way in a 7 furlong class 2 contest at Goodwood last week before finishing 5th. He was well down the field in The Victoria Cup at Ascot earlier this month but was badly drawn that day and, although 14th in the race, was actually 2nd in his group who raced on the unfavoured far side. He will not want conditions to dry up too much but his trainer has won the last two renewals of this contest and the jockey booking of Oisin Murphy very much catches the eye.
Another horse in here who has won over course-and-distance is the top weight AIR RAID. He won here last October and he is another who likes it when the mud is flying, having won 5 of his 8 races run on soft or heavy going. He is only 2lbs higher than for his win last autumn but he has never defied a mark this high before. Although he has won after a break before, his fitness has to be taken on trust as this is his first start of the season and, whilst the stable was in flying form back in March, the winners have rather dried up for the yard in the last couple of months.
A third course-and-distance winner in this line-up is HYPERFOCUS. He finished 7th here behind AIR RAID last October but a month earlier he had triumphed here, in soft ground, off just 1lb lower than he runs from today. His overall record at Haydock is excellent with 3 wins and a 3rd place from just 5 starts and all of those came over this 6 furlong trip. He has not always been the most consistent performer but his current rating is certainly within the range he has been very competitive off in the past and, whilst he doesn’t need the ground to be ‘hock deep’ he is best when there is some give underfoot. With his relatively high draw looking to also be a plus he could run well for a stable who has been performing well in recent weeks.
Tim Easterby also has GOLDEN APOLLO entered here. Although still only a 7 year-old, it seems that this horse has been around for a long time and, after an excellent year as a 3 year-old, he has only won just the once in nearly 4 years. He remains 2lbs above that last winning mark and may just need this run on his first outing of the season.
A trainer in top form in the past week or so is Roger Varian and he runs MUSICALITY here. He won 2 of his first 4 career starts, last summer, and the second of those came in soft ground over this trip at Newmarket. That came off a mark 4lbs lower than here and he has struggled off higher ratings since. He is still lightly raced, so there could be plenty of scope for improvement, and he should come on for his seasonal debut at Ascot earlier in the month, but his trainer’s record with horses aged 4 and above at this track does not inspire confidence.
One trainer who does have a good record here, across all age groups, is Michael Dods and he has two horses entered here. The first is ROYAL CONTEXT who, having raced primarily at 5 furlongs so far, is stepping up to this trip for just the third time in his 11-race career. He is a course winner, over 5 furlongs, and, also, finished 2nd on his only other start here. He is back on the same mark as when winning here, and has his best form when there is plenty of cut in the ground, but jockey bookings would indicate that he is the yard’s second string here.
Paul Mulrennan rides the other horse for the trainer and that is TROUBADOR. He had some creditable form as a 2 year-old, winning 4 times and finishing the season with an excellent 2nd place in Redcar’s 2 year-old Trophy in heavy ground, but rather lost his way last year. He has come down the ratings as a result and is now 7lbs lower than the rating from which he started off last season. His second start last season saw him finish 2nd to a well-treated progressive rival, Meraas, giving him 8lbs and, with that horse now rated at 100, he looks well treated here, on 94 by that form. He needs to return to that level and will be hoping that the ground continues to dry out. He may just need the run after 265 days off the track but could run a good race at big odds.
Another trainer with a good record at Haydock is Ralph Beckett and he excels with his older horses in particular here with his runners aged 4 and older having a 28% strike-rate in the last 5 years. He runs a very interesting runner here in the shape of the 4 year-old filly HELVEZIA. She is another making her seasonal debut and she tries this trip for the first time. She was progressive last season, running mainly over 7 furlongs and finished the campaign with an excellent 3rd placed finish in a listed contest at Goodwood. The race was won by Royal Ascot winner, Onassis, who is now rated 107 and subsequently ran well in a Group 1 on Champions Day back at Ascot whilst the 2nd horse home was With Thanks who has since won a Group 3 at Naas and is now 110 rated. That horse is due to run in the Group 3 John O’Gaunt Stakes later today and, interestingly, HELVEZIA was, also, initially entered in that race before connections decided to run in this easier contest. She is, obviously, held in high regard and could be well-handicapped here. She goes well with plenty of give underfoot and Frankie Dettori is an interesting jockey booking given he comes here for just 2 rides and has won or finished placed in 10 of his 19 rides for this stable in recent years.
Richard Fahey has 2 entered here. The first is BRIAN THE SNAIL who was highly regarded in his younger days when in the ownership of Godolphin. He has been kept extremely busy since winning on the first day of racing’s return last June and has run 18 times since then. He has been in very good form on the all-weather over the winter, winning 3 times and finishing 3rd on all-weather finals day, but has not translated that form back on turf so far this spring. He is, however, running off a mark 13lbs lower than his all-weather rating.
SHOW ME SHOW ME is the second Fahey horse and he has not won since winning on his 2 year-old debut in March 2019. He has now fallen to a career-low mark and has a nice low weight here. He could bounce back to form at any point, and did show some promise last time, but there has to be doubts about the ground and whether it will be in this company.
The absolute bottom weight is TRUE MASON and he is another on a long losing run, having won just the one race back in June 2018. He finished one place ahead of SHOW ME SHOW ME last time out at Doncaster and, although 1lb worse off, should confirm the form with that one.
CONCIERGE comes here on the back of a good win last time out at Newbury. That was a class 2 contest and he has gone up 4lbs for the victory which looks to be fair. Back in 4th on that occasion was the horse who was only just beaten by CAPOTE’S DREAM at Windsor, Beyond Equal, and, on a line through him, CONCIERGE has the beating of Tom Ward’s horse here and yet is double the price. He has been a consistent performer for Michael Attwater, since joining the yard last summer, and he is a rare visitor to this track for the Epsom handler. His form is better with cut in the ground and he is one for the each-way short-list.
Another who seems to enjoy these likely ground conditions is BERNARDO O’REILLY. He is a proven performer at this level, winning 4 of his 10 class 3 contests, and should improve for his seasonal debut at Ascot earlier this month. He finished 6th but was only beaten by 3 lengths and has been dropped by 1lb to leave him back on his last winning mark. His jockey claims 5lbs so he is, potentially, well-handicapped and has what could be a nice draw in stall 15. He is another who could be a strong contender for the places at least.
The form of PUNCHBOWL FLYER’s recent win at Windsor ties in with the win Newbury of CONCIERGE as the same horse, Typhoon Ten, finished 3rd in both races and was beaten by similar distances. He was, however, 6lbs better off with Eve Johnson Houghton’s 4 year old so that form does look better on that basis. He is another with strong form on soft and heavy going so will not want the ground to dry too much.
Of the two at the top of the market, I prefer the chances of BIELSA who could get a nice tow into the race from his high draw and was a little unlucky last time out but he does come with some risks and, at the prices, I want some better value than he currently offers.
The one who could be lurking in this race who is capable of performing at a much higher grade could be HELVEZIA and she rates as the main tip. Her form against a pair of higher-rated rivals, when beaten just 2 lengths off level weights, at Goodwood is very good indeed and with her proven extra stamina likely to be a factor in what could be tacky ground she will, hopefully, be finishing the race off strongly with the stable-form and the jockey booking just extra bonuses.
The likely pace angle in the race could be HYPERFOCUS and he could make a bold bid to make all. He is not the most reliable but should improve for his season debut and has a very good record over course-and-distance. He looks to be on a reasonable mark and he has been backed during Friday to show that there is some confidence somewhere that he will run well.
The forecast suggests a dry day and the drier the ground the more I fancy the outsider of the field, TROUBADOR, to run well. I will have a bit of loose change on him and he is a ‘shrapnel’ suggestion but I doubt the ground will dry out that much and, with the likelihood that the going could be ‘dead’ or ‘tacky’, it could be hard work and the extra stamina and proven soft ground form of former winner COLD STARE make him another formal ‘tracker’ selection. He is on a good mark now and his trainer is good at placing horses in handicaps and does well in this race.
TIP: HELVEZIA. Trackers: Hyperfocus / Cold Stare