Ayr 3.35
Scottish Grand National - Ayr 3.35 - Grade 3 Class 1 - 4 miles - 22 run - Good bit of Good to Soft
Just 8 days on from The Grand National at Aintree, it is the turn of the Scottish version to take centre stage this Saturday.
Run over 4 miles, although still a real test of stamina, this contest does offer a different set of challenges to those faced by the horses last week. Obviously, this is a more conventional race run over conventional park fences and, as seems set to be the case this year again, is often run on decent ground. With a gap between the two days of the meeting this year, I expect that they may water the track, to ensure that the ground does not get too quick and is safe. They usually go a decent early pace, on the better ground, and it’s important to get in a good jumping rhythm and it often pays to race fairly prominently.
Only one Scottish-trained horse has won this race since 1992 (Merigo in both 2010 and 2012) but 9 of this year’s field of 22 hail from yards North of the border and several are strongly prominent in the market.
At the top of the market is AYE RIGHT. He is a horse who has developed into a really good chaser in the last year or so and seems to not know how to run a bad race. He has been placed in all five of his chases this season, including The Charlie Hall, The Ladbroke Trophy, The Skybet Chase and, last time, in The Ultima at Cheltenham. He was unfortunate to be caught late on in The Skybet Chase, when a tip for us, having jumped beautifully for much of the race, and it is his jumping that is a strength. He was not so fluent, under Richard Johnson, at Cheltenham, but his regular pilot is back on board here and he will no doubt look to race prominently once more. Whilst he is still on the same mark as at Cheltenham, his consistency has seen him climb the ratings and it’s likely that, although he runs a solid race, he, once again, finds at least one who is better handicapped.
Only one horse is higher than AYE RIGHT in the handicap and that is LAKE VIEW LAD. He ran in last week’s Aintree Grand National but got no further than the first fence on what was his first run since wind surgery. He has never run on ground better than good-to-soft and looks to have it all to do here even with his jockey claiming 5lbs off his back.
A horse who has been strongly supported in the market in the last 24 hours or so, and who could end up challenging AYE RIGHT for favouritism, is the Paul Nicholls’ trained SOLDIER OF LOVE. He ran up a 4-timer last summer and started off winning a novice handicap at Bangor off a mark of 118 and his run was only ended when he finished 2nd to, subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner, Galvin at Cheltenham in October. He now runs off 144 and appears for the first time since being pulled up in deep ground, back at Cheltenham, in November. He was pulled out of The National Hunt Chase last month on account of the ground and connections quickly switched their focus to this contest. The fact that he was lined up to go at Cheltenham means that he has been ready to run for a month but it does, also, mean that he comes here after a break of 5 months. The trainer did have 3 entered but has chosen to go with just this one as the other two want softer ground and conditions will clearly suit this novice. When he was a double-figure price he was, I admit, of strong interest but the value has now gone to a degree and, whilst he could still be the one to win this, it’s a question of whether there is some better value now elsewhere.
The last time this race was run, in 2019, the winner was trained by Nicky Richards and he runs two in this year’s renewal. The two horses are very much at opposite ends of their chasing career with the one that is most unexposed being CHAPEL STILE. He has had just 4 starts over fences, winning twice and placing once. His debut, at Carlisle in November 2019 saw him finish ahead of SAM’S ADVENTURE and he is 15lbs better off with that rival here. He has won both of his chases at Carlisle and the second of those came on his latest run when he seemed to enjoy the step up in trip from what he’d previously run over when tackling the larger obstacles. Campaigned for much of this season over hurdles, that win in February was his only run over fences this term and he went up 6lbs for the win. He has to improve again but he gets in here with a nice weight, could still have improvement to come and is definitely one for my short-list.
At the other end of the scale in terms of chasing experience is CHIDSWELL. He is now a 12 year-old and has 24 chase runs to his name. He has been a fairly consistent performer over the years and has finished in the first 3 in two-thirds of those chase starts. He is, also, an assured jumper and has never fallen in his career. He ran in this race two years ago, off a mark 5lbs higher than he goes from here, but he is still 2lbs higher than his last winning mark and it is hard to see him producing a career-best at his age in this company.
Another trainer to field two in this race is Scottish trainer Sandy Thomson. He has gained a reputation for re-vitalising horses who have moved from other yards and a horse who may fit into that category is DINGO DOLLAR. He was previously trained by Alan King and ran well at this meeting as a novice to leave the impression that he could be an ideal type for this race. He was well touted for the 2019 race but was withdrawn on the day of the race due to the ground and the underfoot conditions may be similar here so that could be a concern perhaps? He ended his time at Alan King’s out of sorts but was immediately revived by the switch of stable and the fitting of a first-time tongue-tie and he won very easily at Newcastle last month. He’s up 8lb as a result but that’s still 3lbs lower than the mark from which he was placed in both The Grimthorpe and The Ladbroke Trophy when in the care of Alan King.
Sandy Thomson’s other runner is THE FERRY MASTER. This former 3-mile PTP winner only made his debut under rules 18 months ago but has taken very well to fences this season following wind surgery back in the summer. He is another who has had only 4 starts in chases, and this is his first attempt outside novice company, but he has won 2 of those and finished 2nd in another. He is yet to race beyond 3 miles, so this extra mile is a step into the unknown, but he did look an out-and-out stayer when winning at Kelso in November and he was entered in The Edinburgh National back in February before being withdrawn due to the deep ground. The soft ground was probably an issue when he ran last time, finishing a well-beaten 4th at Haydock, and he will be happier returned to this surface. He is a good jumper and, if seeing out the trip, is a likely danger to all.
Fellow Scottish trainer Lucinda Russell is another with a couple of horses entered here and the first of those is MIGHTY THUNDER who has already proved his stamina for a test like this by winning the aforementioned Edinburgh National over 4m 1f. Raised 10lbs for that win, he ran an excellent race when, as a tip for this service, he was just touched off in the final 100 yards of the Midlands National by a well-handicapped rival last month. He possibly idled a little that day and the 2f less to travel may also be in his favour this time. Again lightly-raced, with just 5 starts over fences prior to this, he seems to enjoy these extreme distances on the evidence so far and he is clearly progressing so has to be one for strong consideration. Two small niggles in my mind, however, are that (a) he is up another 5lbs here and, although Tom Scudamore is an excellent jockey, the absence of his injured usual claiming jockey means that he is effectively 8lbs higher, and (b) he had a hard race at Uttoxeter on top of the Edinburgh National run and running 3 marathon contests in just 10 weeks is a big ask.
Russell’s second contender is no stranger to these big-field handicaps and that is BIG RIVER. This 11 year-old was once touted as a possible future superstar but a series of issues, including an irregular heartbeat, conspired to prevent him really fulfilling some of his early potential. He has, nonetheless, still run some decent races and, at times, has shaped as if really needing extreme distances as he has often found himself dropping the bridle before flying home late to snatch one of the minor places. That was certainly the case when he finished 5th in this race in 2019, from a 1lb higher mark, but he was pulled up last time, after a reoccurrence of his heart problems, with talk of retirement being probable too. If everything were to fall right, he could run a very good race but the fragility of the horse (he has also suffered from heat stress a few times in the past) is a concern.
A third Scottish trainer with two runners is Iain Jardine. The first of his entries is COOL MIX. He is yet to race beyond 3 miles but his form at distances over shorter entitles him to respect. Whilst the trip is a big unknown the likely conditions are not as he seems best on a sound surface. He has not been seen since a creditable 3rd place finish on New Years Day at Musselburgh and does have a low weight.
DINO BOY is Jardine’s other runner and he is one of several who are joint bottom weight. He is, however, running from 8lbs out of the handicap and was well beaten by MIGHTY THUNDER when last seen in The Edinburgh National. He does, however, have proven stamina for this trip having been successful in The Borders National the time before at Kelso. Previously with Nigel Twiston-Davies, he was purchased by his current owners in October and, as previous winners of the race with Merigo, they will, no doubt, have earmarked this race as the season’s target from that point. He clearly stays well but will need to jump better than he did at Musselburgh to figure here and Connor O’Farrell, who has ridden him on all 3 starts for this stable, has chosen to ride his stable-mate.
Another of the bottom weights is CHEF D’OEUVRE and he is 2lbs out of the handicap. This 10 year-old was formerly with Warren Greatrex and he always insisted that he needed very testing conditions to be seen at his best. Indeed, he always kept him away from decent going. Current connections, however, don’t seem to share that view and they have campaigned him differently after, initially, declaring him a non-runner on good ground when set for stable debut. He hasn’t had many runs on good ground but, arguably, his best performance for the yard came in such conditions when 3rd in the 2019 Grand National Trial at Haydock and he comes here after a win, back at that venue, over 3 ½ miles last time in good-to-soft ground. He finished 5th in The Grimthorpe prior to that and, on that form, is held by CHIDSWELL who finished one place ahead of him.
The Irish, of course, dominated both the Aintree and Cheltenham Festivals and there is one Irish raider due to line up here. That is MISTER FOGPATCHES who has yet to taste success over fences from his 5 starts. He ran a solid enough race last time, when finishing 4th at Leopardstown last month, and was hampered by a faller at the last fence otherwise he would have finished a bit closer to the winner. That was run over 2m 5f and is the furthest he has been over fences so far although he has been placed a couple of times over 3 miles over hurdles. The form of his last race was boosted last week at Aintree and, given the recent performances of Irish horses in handicaps over this side of the water, he is a dangerous one to dismiss.
SAM’S ADVENTURE comes here looking to follow up his win in The Eider Chase at Newcastle in February. That race is always a big stamina test and he showed plenty of it when rallying to get back up to win the race in the final yards. He has now 2 of his last 3 starts, having started these season in rather slow fashion, and has risen 12lbs in the ratings as a result. Most of his good form has, however, come on very testing ground and connections will no doubt be hoping that either the weather forecast is wrong or that the ground staff get the watering wrong overnight.
CLAUD AND GOLDIE finished ahead of SAM’S ADVENTURE when they met at Haydock in November and is 8lbs better off with that rival here. He is a 12 year-old but has had only 12 runs under rules and only ran 3 times in points. He is a bit of a Kelso specialist and 7 of his races have come at that venue. 6 of his top 3 finishes (including all 3 wins) have come there but Ayr is the only other course at which he has finished placed and that came in a 3 mile novice chase 2 years ago. He is a horse who can hit the odd fence and will need to jump well in this contest if he is to figure in the final shake-up.
SOME CHAOS finished ahead of CLAUD AND GOLDIE, and two other rivals here, when winning at Kelso back in October and he is 2lbs better off with that rival here. As a former pointer, Michael Scudamore’s horse was always going to be better over fences than hurdles and so it has proved. His chase record is good, with 5 wins from his 10 runs, and all of his wins have come on good ground. He ran well for a long way in The Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton, in November, when finishing 5th, having been hampered, and was put away for the winter once the softer ground came. He had two spins over hurdles last month to get him race-fit for this which has been the season’s target and, unlike some in here, has not had too hard a season. His trainer had a nice winner at Cheltenham in the week and has a 30% strike-rate in the last fortnight which bodes well. He is unraced beyond 3m 2f but is one for the short-list being only 3lbs higher than for his Kelso win.
Another aimed at this from some way out looks to be ENQARDE who represents Dr Richard Newland. Previously in France, he only started off for his current yard in the autumn but has run some respectable races since. He did, however, seem to find the trip an issue when pulling up in Haydock’s Grand National Trial and has only run in soft ground since coming to the UK. He did win on good going in France but was pulled out of a race at Cheltenham earlier this week on account of the going.
Also running in Haydock’s Grand National Trial was NOTACHANCE. He was pulled up in the race but, subsequently, found to be lame so there is an argument to ignore that run. Prior to that he had shown his aptitude for staying chases by taking The Classic Chase at Warwick and his trainer, Alan King, nominated this race as the target in the immediate aftermath. King started out his career working just over the road from Ayr racecourse and it is a race he covets. He won the race with Godsmejudge back in 2013 and this 7 year-old has a similar profile. He stayed the trip well at Warwick and ran right through the line on his previous outing at Bangor when beating some decent yardsticks.
Former Paul Nicholls’ inmate COUP DE PINCEAU won well at Taunton last time over an extended 3 ½ mile trip in soft ground but ran plenty of decent races on a sound surface when at Ditcheat. The 7lb claimer, who is based with Nicholls, who was on board for that last win keeps the ride here which means that he only carries 1lb more than the bottom weights. That said, he is still 6lbs higher in a better race so faces a stiffer task.
A case can be made for a good many in this race and the current betting market is an indication of how competitive this contest is. AYE RIGHT is a solid contender and not many would begrudge him and his trainer a win. He does, however, face a big task off his current mark and there are probably a couple who are better handicapped or less exposed. I’m wary of MIGHTY THUNDER, who has proved his liking for this sort of stamina test, but just have a concern that he may be going to the well one time too many in such a relatively short period. SOLDIER OF LOVE had good form on decent ground last summer, and is trained by probably the best trainer in the UK, but his price has shortened in the last day or so and, on value grounds only, I have to leave him out of my final picks. I may regret that but I did want a bigger price.
In the end, I was left with a final short-list of 4 horses and, whilst I will have a small ‘shrapnel’ bet myself on him, the one to just miss out is SOME CHAOS. The drying ground is in his favour and, with a good strike over fences, his recent spins over hurdles should put him spot on for this. He would be first reserve should any of the final picks not run.
The first one I want to go with is NOTACHANCE. He had valid excuses when finishing lame last time and, whilst that injury has meant a bit more of a rushed preparation than ideal, he is one to take seriously based on his form prior to that. The ground is a small question mark and the stats gurus will say that 7 year-olds do not have a good record in the race but Alan King won the race with a 7 year-old with a similar profile and, as Aintree last Saturday showed, the stats are there to be beaten.
The other two picks are both horses who are unexposed at the trip and over fences more generally. THE FERRY MASTER looks to be the second-string for Sandy Thomson, based on the betting, but he has been a big improver since having wind surgery and going over fences and will enjoy the better ground here.
Equally unexposed is CHAPEL STILE. He returned to fences with a comfortable win at Carlisle last time and, although that was only over an extended 3 miles, it was on a stiffer track than this and he wasn’t stopping at the line. Whilst all his runs over fences have come in soft going, he has won on good ground at this venue in the past so should handle conditions too.
Trackers: Notachance, The Ferry Master, Chapel Stile