Ascot 3.00
DAVID - ASCOT 3.00 Elite Service - Handicap Hurdle - Class 2 - 2 miles 3 and 1/2 furlongs - 15 run - soft (dry day at Ascot no rain forecast)
Whilst the grade 1 Chase on Ascot’s card has attracted just 5 runners, the biggest field at Ascot on Saturday are set to line up in this 2m 3f handicap hurdle. At the time of writing, there are 15 set to go to post and, as ever in these difficult-to-solve handicaps, there are plenty of enhanced place offers available and the aim is to make a profit by fully utilising these if we can.
The top-weight is L’AMI SERGE. Now an 11 year-old, it is interesting that these connections have kept the faith with him and this is his first foray into handicap company over hurdles for almost 4 years. He has been largely running in grade 1 contests since then and has not won in just under 3 years now. That said, he has only raced on 4 occasions in that time and was last seen pulling up in The Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham last March. This is, obviously, a much easier race than those in which he has been competing, and this dual grade 1 winner could be attractively handicapped based on old form. He does have a very good record at this track but, after another long lay-off, he could be in the need of the run here.
The next horse in at the weights is almost the complete opposite to L’AMI SERGE in terms of experience on the track and that is PILEON who represents Philip Hobbs. This 7 year-old has had just 7 starts under rules and, after a good novice hurdle campaign, was sent chasing at the start of this season. That venture lasted for just two starts as the horse did not take to the discipline and lost confidence. Given nearly 3 months off since his last chase start, he reverts to the smaller obstacles here as connections look for him to resume his progress from last season. That campaign saw him start off in a very warm novice event at Cheltenham, in December, before stepping up in trip and finishing the season with an excellent run in The Conditionals race back at Cheltenham in March, where he was just headed on the post. He is 5lbs higher here but is back on his favoured soft ground and is not without a chance.
Another horse who contested the strong novice race at Cheltenham last season is STOLEN SILVER. He finished 2nd on that occasion, some 2 lengths and 2 places ahead of PILEON, and is another who is coming back over hurdles following a first spell over fences. He is another who enjoyed a decent season as a novice hurdler last year and won a grade 2 at Haydock last January. He finished a creditable 8th place in The Betfair Hurdle last season, off 5lbs higher than he runs from here, but ended the season by being pulled up in The County Hurdle at Cheltenham. He is better off at the weights with PILEON from their meeting last season but, unlike that rival, he is yet to prove he gets this trip as most of his racing has been done at the minimum trip of 2 miles. He has run over 2 ½ miles over fences and was staying on well in The Betfair Hurdle a year ago so this step up in distance does not look entirely beyond him and he does handle deep ground.
Donald McCain has had his horses in decent form recently and, whilst he is not firing in as many winners as he did 8-10 years ago, he has been having his best season for several years this term. He sends down CHTI BALKO to run in this. The 9 year-old has been a consistent performer for his yard and has done most of his winning in heavy ground. The ground is certainly set to be testing here but I doubt it will be as heavy as this lad needs to be really seen at his best. He may run a solid race but he has to produce a career-best to win off his current mark and, also, has very little form going right-handed with all of his 5 wins coming at left-handed tracks (3 of them at Haydock).
Three of today’s field contested the big grade 3 hurdle at this venue just before Christmas and the one who fared best of all there was MALAYA who finished 6th. This 7 year-old mare has previous with this particular contest, having finished 2nd last year and 4th a year earlier when she actually finished closer to the winner than she did 12 months ago. The owners and trainer did have another also entered in this race up until the final declarations on Thursday so it is interesting that they rely on her once more for the contest. She is 2lbs lower than when runner-up last year and back down to her last winning mark. That win came in the 2019 Imperial Cup at Sandown where she beat a very good field (with CHTI BALKO well beaten) in soft ground to prove her ability to handle these big-field handicaps. That win came in a strongly-run race and there looks to be plenty of pace on here so that should suit whilst her record in deep ground is also a positive.
Her record at this track is very decent and this trip may well suit her much better than the bare 2 miles she raced over here in December. The yard continues in fine form, with a 25% strike-rate in the past fortnight, and won this race two years ago.
Back in 11th in that December handicap, some 7 lengths behind MALAYA, was the Jonjo O’Neill trained ARRIVEDERCHI. He is another who does seem to thrive when the mud is flying and was a useful novice last season. He has been sent off a well-supported favourite for competitive handicaps a couple of times already this season and, at the time of writing, is one of two vying for the top of the market here. Last time out was last month when he was one of three in here who contested a grade 3 handicap over course-and-distance. He ran much better on that occasion than he did when running a bit ‘flat’ in the December race but has gone up 2lbs as a result and is, therefore, 4lbs worse off with MALAYA from their meeting in December.
One place behind ARRIVEDERCI last month was KATESON. Another to have a slightly disappointing venture into chasing last season, this 8 year-old returned to hurdles last March after having had wind surgery. He got his head back in front in December when responding well to the first-time fitting of cheekpieces to win a decent handicap hurdle at Aintree in soft ground. He is 2lbs better off with ARRIVEDERCI here nad has just over 3 lengths to make up so they should finish a lot closer together here in theory.
Just behind KATESON, in 4th, last month was DANS LE VENT. He had won his first race in over 3 years in December when successful at Hereford and probably ran to a similar level of form at Ascot. He stayed on all the way up to the line last time but was not really making any impression on the leaders so it’s difficult to see him turning around the form with the two ahead of him, despite being 2lb better off with ARRIVEDERCI.
The other horse currently vying for favouritism is the lightly-raced GLADIATEUR ALLEN. He has raced only 3 times so far in his career but won on his last start, at this track, over 2m 5f last month. He showed lots of inexperience that day but took advantage of the weight concession he was getting from all his rivals to win very comfortably. Prior to that he had finished 3rd in a maiden hurdle at Exeter and the form of that race has been franked with both the winner and the horse who finished 2nd winning subsequently. His jockey, once again, takes off a useful 5lbs here but his lack of experience in big-field handicaps is a possible issue.
There could well be a contest for the lead here as the likes of CHTI BALKO, KATESON and STOLEN SILVER all like to race prominently whilst another who also likes to cut out the running is KID COMMANDO. He made all here on seasonal debut when getting the better of MALAYA over 2 miles at the end of October but is now 6lbs worse off and has to bounce back from two poor runs after racing far too keenly both at Haydock, when stepped up to this distance in November, and, again, here in December. He was given wind surgery after the latter run and his trainer, who has a good record here, will be hoping that it will have a positive effect as he looks to bounce back to form. The likely competition for the lead here, however, may not be in his favour and, although he won over 3 miles as a pointer, it’s far from certain the step back up in trip will be a positive either.
The Dan Skelton yard has been in flying form for most of the season, having deliberately shifted their focus markedly to the winter months, and, following another double at Kelso on Friday, have a strike-rate of 32% in the past fortnight. That sort of form dictates that anything they run is worthy of a second look and they have SHANNON BRIDGE entered here. This 8 year-old is yet another who has returned to hurdles after a spell chasing and responded well to first-time blinkers when winning on his return to the smaller obstacles last month. The headgear is retained here but this is a much deeper race and he has never defied a mark this high before, having gone up 5lbs for his win last time at Wetherby.
Another trainer enjoying a good season is David Pipe and he, too, has been in good form in recent weeks. He runs KEPAGGE here and the 7 year-old drops back in trip having run in a Pertemps qualifier, over 3 miles, last time out at Warwick. This horse won his first 3 runs under rules last season, once in a bumper and twice over hurdles, but has found life a little tougher this campaign. Both runs have been over further than today’s trip and he has been dropped by a total of 4lbs in the process so could now be sat on a decent handicap mark. He found himself very short of room on the final bend at Warwick and, then, had to avoid stricken horses following a last fence melee, but he didn’t seem to stay that trip and should be better suited by today’s distance, having won twice already at the trip in heavy ground.
GOOD MAN PAT is another in this field who has returned to hurdles this season, after a spell chasing, but he has, so far, failed to get his head in front from 4 attempts this term. His best effort, probably, came at the end of December when he was 2nd at Newbury and, with the 3rd horse home winning a big contest at Doncaster subsequently, he has gone up 2lbs as a result. That still leaves his hurdle mark short of his chasing rating so there is scope for more improvement yet.
A tricky handicap that contains several who do not have that much to hide from the handicapper with the one major exception probably being GLADIATEUR ALLEN. He could be thrown in, especially with his jockey’s allowance, but his lack of experience means I will leave him and if he wins so be it.
I want to take on the favourite with a main tip and a couple of trackers at each-way prices. The main pick is MALAYA. The likely strong pace should play to her strengths and she looks the most solid each-way play to me with the enhanced places that are widely available. She has good course form, has run well in the race before (off higher marks) and handles the ground. I would rather side with one with proven form in these races than take a chance on a horse who ‘might be’ better than this but is yet to prove it.
For a couple of ‘tracker’ stake bets I think it may be worth having an each-way investment on STOLEN SILVER. He is back hurdling after a spell chasing and is back to his last winning mark. He is also 5lbs below the mark from which he ran so well in The Betfair Hurdle and the hurly-burly of this handicap should not faze him. The step up in trip is something the stable have done successfully with other horses in the past also.
The second ‘tracker’ is L’AMI SERGE. He is a very big price for a dual grade 1 winner and the handicapper has given him a chance if he is fit enough to do himself justice. Fitness, obviously, has to be taken on trust but the price does compensate a little for that fact I think. He has a good record at Ascot, albeit mainly in small fields, and the fact that he doesn’t like to be in front too soon could help in this field and, hopefully, Darryl Jacob can produce him late off the likely strong pace.
TIP: MALAYA. Trackers: STOLEN SILVER, L’AMI SERGE