2021 Grand National - Aintree Saturday 10th April 5.05
This is the most famous race on the planet and, whilst it's always fun to have an interest in the race by way of a bet, it is a day like no other and I would always advise staking sensibly. There are plenty of other races to bet in during the year and many much better opportunities to find winners and we do not want to throw away lots of staking points for the sake of it.
With that in mind, I have set out below a small summary of each horse lining up in this year’s race, together with my own grading system, which, I hope, will help narrow down the field of 40 runners a little and, ultimately, lead to a final list of selections. The key to my gradings is as follows:-
A – One for the shortlist
B – Lively outside chance
C – Probable Also Ran
D – Difficult to make a case
Bristol De Mai – The class horse in the race who has been kept fresh for this. Has won the grade 1 Betfair Chase 3 times and been placed in a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Generally, jumps well and, whilst he has a reputation for liking deep ground, he has won on both good and good to soft going. He has to concede weight to all his rivals, which makes things tough, but does benefit from the unique National weights compression by way of 2lbs. Grading B
Chris’s Dream – Enjoyed a productive 2019/20 season, winning both The Troytown and Red Mills Chase before running down the field in The Cheltenham Gold Cup, but has not really reproduced that form this season. Ran poorly in The Ryanair Chase last month, making several jumping errors, and, with his best form coming in soft going, he would have wanted more testing ground than is likely here. Grading D
Yala Enki – This 11 year-old is a thorough stayer and has finished 3rd in The Welsh National for the last 3 years. He is, however, 1lb ‘wrong’ at the weights and is another who would prefer softer ground. One of a few in here who might try to bowl along in front but he fell at the first on his only try over these fences and there has to be a reason why his former trainer, Venetia Williams, never considered running him in this race. Grading C
Ballyoptic – Has often been talked about as an ideal horse for this race but his record over these fences is not good. He fell in the 2019 race and has also fallen in one of his two appearances in The Becher Chase. He does have some smart form in staying chases, including when runner-up in The Scottish National 3 years ago, but has looked on the decline this season and went unsold at the Goffs sale last month. Grading D
Definitely Red – Brian Ellison’s 12 year-old re-appears in this race some 4 years after being sent off a strongly-fancied chance in the race won by One For Arthur. He suffered a luckless run on that occasion and had to be pulled-up when his saddle slipped. That was probably his big chance of landing this race. He has finished 4th in The Becher Chase since then, to prove his ability over these unique fences, but he has not shown much spark this season and was well beaten by CLOTH CAP at Kelso last time, off level weights, and now has to concede 10lbs to that rival. Grading C
Lake View Lad – Another who was well beaten in that Kelso race and, again, he is much worse off at the weights with the winner. He has had wind surgery since then and did have a good win on The Mildmay course here in December. There were plenty of fences omitted that day, which probably helped his cause given some of the errors that have been evident in recent runs. He ran in the 2019 renewal of this race and was pulled up and, given his 2lbs higher this time, it’s difficult to see him troubling the placings here on ground that will not be as soft as he prefers. Grading D
Burrows Saint – Won The Irish National, as a novice, 2 years ago and has been spoken of as an ‘Aintree type’ ever since given the good record past winners of that race have here. He went up 12lbs for that win but has been largely campaigned away from fences since then in order to try to protect his mark. He did run at Fairyhouse over fences last time, after the weights had been framed for this race, and finished a good 2nd behind stable-mate and fellow contender here ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS. He does have a tendency to jump a little to his right and has been raced only on right-handed tracks in Ireland, which is a small worry, whilst Paul Townend misses the ride through injury and is replaced by Patrick Mullins. The trainer is as good as there is, however, and the jockey won over these fences on Friday. He warrants full respect on going that should be to his liking. Grading A
Magic Of Light – This 10 year-old was an excellent runner-up in this race in 2019 and proved she has the required stamina for this test. She is 5lbs higher in the ratings this time around but she made two really big mistakes two years ago and would have been a lot closer without them you would think. Her trainer, having had some excellent chasers in the past, now seems to be concentrating more and more on producing flat winners but she will have geared her season around this race. Found the trip to be too sharp when running at Cheltenham last month but that will have put her spot on fitness-wise for this and, with possibly the best National form in the book here, she is not easily dismissed. Grading B
Acapella Bourgeois – Comes here after winning The Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse for the second year running, beating BURROWS SAINT, and has followed the same seasonal journey as he did when being prepared for this race last year. He won comfortably last time, giving his stablemate 6lbs, yet he is priced up at more than double the odds. He finished 3rd in the Irish National behind BURROWS SAINT, again giving away 6lbs, and is 7lbs better off here. On the bare form of those two races, it is hard to see why there is such a price discrepancy but he is rather more exposed than his stable-mate and is yet to win a handicap. He does, however, warrant, much respect. Grading B
Talkischeap – He absolutely ran away with the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown 2 years ago and that marked him down as a future Grand National horse with many people. He has, however, had his issues since then, and had two lots of wind surgery, and has failed to shine since. He was saved for a return to fences this season until after the weights were published but ran poorly at Kempton and now finds himself 5lbs wrong at the weights. It is interesting, however, that his trainer, who is not a great fan of this race usually, keeps the faith but it requires a big leap of faith to see him win here. Grading C
Tout Est Permis – This Irish raider will like the ground but, that aside, he doesn’t look to have too many positives for this. His stamina looked far from assured when well beaten in the 2019 Irish National. He was well beaten by the Mullins pair in The Bobbyjo Chase and, then, fell last time out at Down Royal. Grading D
Anibale Fly – This 11 year-old has failed to beat a single runner in all 4 of his races over fences since finishing a creditable 5th in this race in 2019. He did, however, finish 4th in 2018 and, also, in the placings in The Cheltenham Gold Cup in both of those seasons – running on strongly up the hill on both occasions. He, clearly, has an abundance of stamina but the big question is whether he still retains the required ability. He has been campaigned quietly this season, finishing last of the 5 runners in The Bobbyjo Chase on his only start, and looks to have been laid out again for this off a 9lb lower mark than two years ago. Despite his poor recent form, he is dangerous to rule out for a trainer who can ready one for a big race. Grading B
Mister Malarky – He was a really good novice two seasons ago, finishing 4th in a strong renewal of The RSA Chase at Cheltenham, but has been rather ‘hit and miss’ since then. He is a horse who needs to get into a rhythm early and backers will, possibly, know their fate by the time they reach Beechers first time around. Usually a sound jumper, he unseated today’s jockey in The Ladbroke Chase in November before putting up an excellent display to win at Ascot the next month to beat the ill-fated The Conditional over 3 miles. Whilst that win came in heavy ground, he actually seems to prefer a sounder surface so that is in his favour here and he ran an encouraging race last time on his first start since wind surgery. His stable have had a difficult last 12 months but he would be a popular winner for his trainer in what will be his last season as the licence-holder. If he stays the trip, he could easily make the places at nice odds. Grading B
Kimberlite Candy – Another of JP McManus’s 7 runners in here, this lad was well touted for last year’s cancelled event following an excellent 10 length win in The Classic Chase at Warwick over 3m 5f. He has raced just once since and that cam over these fences in December when he repeated the 2nd place finish of the prior year in The Becher Chase. He clearly handles the track and the fences and his win at Warwick would indicate that stamina is not a major worry but most of his good form has come on soft ground and he will not want conditions to dry up too much. He was pulled up in the 2019 Irish National and could only finish 5th in The Eider in the same year and both were run in similar conditions to those he is set to encounter here. He goes well fresh, so the break since December is not a concern and, if handling the ground, he is one of the more likely contenders. Grading A
Any Second Now – There has been steady support for Ted Walsh’s horse in the last few weeks and the trainer is taking a similar route with this 9 year-old as he did with Papillon when that horse won in 2000. Does have stamina to prove but was very strong at the finish when winning The Kim Muir at Cheltenham in 2019. Hadn’t shown much this season until winning a small-filed contest over 2 miles last time and he is now 3lbs ‘well in’ at the weights as a result. His jumping can be a bit low at times but that didn’t stop Tiger Roll winning this race twice and he may be suited by this challenge. Looks the number one hope for owner JP McManus based on jockey bookings. Grading A
Balko Des Flos – This former Cheltenham Festival winner is one of the two horses in the news in the last week or so following his acquisition by a racing club and he is a horse who has not won since that Cheltenham triumph, in The Ryanair Chase, in 2018. He was last seen unshipping Rachael Blackmore in The Cross-Country race at Cheltenham last month and was well beaten in his 4 other runs this season. Has it all to do here. Grading D
Alpha Des Obeaux – Another with very poor form in recent times but did show some glimpses of promise last time when finishing 4th in The Cross-Country at Cheltenham. He ran in the 2018 race and unseated Rachael Blackmore at The Chair but did get round the course when finishing 3rd in the 2019 Becher Chase. He will like the better ground here but his chance is not obvious. Grading C
Ok Corral – Nicky Henderson has never won this race and this 11 year-old is his sole representative this year. His only run this season came at Cheltenham last month after a 416 day absence and he was pulled up lame in The Ultima. Difficult to see him breaking his trainer’s duck here although he is only 5lbs higher than when winning The Skybet Chase last year and the excellent Irish amateur, Derek O’Connor, rides again. Grading C
Takingrisks – One of only five last-time out winners in the race, Nicky Richards’ charge bids to become the first 12 year-old to win the race since Amberleigh House in 2004. He has already won a Scottish National (with CLOTH CAP behind him in 3rd) and looked as good as ever, after wind surgery, when winning The Skybet Chase this year. A very consistent horse who has reserves of stamina, he could run a big race at nice odds if he doesn’t find everything happening a bit too quick for him early. Grading B
Shattered Love – This mare is a former Cheltenham Festival winner and ran well there in the Mares Chase this year, finishing 3rd. There has to be a big question mark about her stamina for this contest, given that her only attempts beyond 3 miles in the past resulted in her being well beaten in a Cheltenham Gold Cup and pulled-up in an Irish National. Grading D
Jett – Winless since October 2019 but has looked in decline in the past year. Given a ‘sighter’ over these fences in The Becher Chase but was well beaten and is another who has to prove his stamina. The one positive is the booking of a jockey who has a very good record over the Aintree fences. Grading D
Lord Du Mesnil – A strong stayer who is a bit of a Haydock specialist. Lines up here 5lbs ‘well in’ after his win in the Trial race at Haydock in February. He was given a spin over these fences in The Grand Sefton in December but that was a woefully inadequate trip and this test should suit much more. The big question mark has to be the ground, as he has never won on anything better than soft, but, if he handles it, he ticks a lot of other boxes and could run into a place at least at decent odds. Grading B
Potters Corner – Another with no real stamina doubts given that he is a former Welsh National winner who has also won a Midlands National. He has not been seen over regulation fences since his Welsh National win in 2019 and has been campaigned with this race in mind by sticking to hurdles and cross-country races. He ran a particularly encouraging race in a cross-country event at Cheltenham in November, staying on nicely into 3rd, but it is a small concern that he missed his intended engagement in the equivalent event at The Festival due to a setback. His two big wins both came in heavy going but he does have form on better ground and he also gets blinkers for the first time here. He was the winner of last year’s Virtual Grand National and, if the various algorithms that go into that model are correct, he could run a big race here. Grading A
Class Conti – This half-brother to the smart staying chaser, Silviniaco Conti, has placed in some decent Irish handicaps and ran his best race this season when finishing ahead of a number of today’s rivals in 3rd place in The Thyestes Chase in January. Has since finished 4th in The Leinster National but has to prove his stamina beyond 3m 1f and seems to prefer softer ground. Grading C
Milan Native – He was the subject of some positive comments from Gordon Elliott when the weights were first announced and won The Kim Muir last year to mark himself down as a staying chaser for the future. He’s, so far, failed to build on that and jumped very poorly back at Cheltenham last month in The Ultima. He weakened quickly when tried over 3m 5f in November but may have had an issue and has had wind surgery since. Top amateur Jamie Codd is booked and he is a master of smuggling horses into races from off the pace but question marks remain over stamina and the ground. Grading C
Discorama – Not won since November 2018 but has run some very good races since then including being placed twice at The Cheltenham Festival. He was 2nd in a gruelling 4-mile National Hunt Chase, in 2019, and then finished 3rd in a decent renewal of The Ultima last year when losing a shoe. He has finished 2nd in a Grade 1 at Punchestown, beating A Plus Tard when giving him weight, but did disappoint back at Cheltenham in November. He has not run since, and had wind surgery, but he does go well fresh so that is not a problem and it is probably a deliberate ploy anyway. Stamina looks assured and he has a nice low weight but the ground may be a small concern given that his best form has come on soft. Grading A
Vieux Lion Rouge – a real course specialist, this 12 year-old has jumped more Aintree fences than any other horse in history, having completed on all 9 attempts over these fences. On that basis, he looks a sure fire certainty to get round once more but he has run in this race 4 times before and has always found the trip beyond him. His record in the shorter Becher Chase is much more impressive and he absolutely bolted up in that race in December. That does mean his mark now makes things even harder for him. He’s a big price given his course record but he makes no each-way appeal unless bookies are offering 10 places! Grading C
Cloth Cap – Lots to like about this horse except, perhaps, the price. Finds himself at the head of the market following two excellent runs. The first when, as a tip for Elite, he trounced the field in The Ladbroke Trophy under an aggressive ride in first-time cheekpieces and then, last time, at Kelso over 3 miles. If the handicapper could have another go at rating him for this, he would 14lbs higher so he is really well-in here on official figures. He showed his capabilities for this type of contest when, again as a tip for us, he finished 3rd in The Scottish National two years behind TAKINGRISKS on good ground. Underfoot conditions are key for this 9 year-old and the ground looks to have come in his favour here. He is likely to have competition for the lead here from the likes of YALA ENKI and Tom Scudamore will have to be careful not to ride too aggressive a race on him. His jumping has always looked assured but this is his first visit to this unique track and his current price is much shorter than I would normally like for a runner in this race. Difficult to argue against him being favourite however. Grading A
Cabaret Queen – Another who may want to front-run in this race and Willie Mullins’ mare has won some nice prizes in the last two seasons – notably the Munster National at Limerick and the Kerry National at Listowel. This is a different test altogether and she ran awfully last time out at Cheltenham. The ground should be fine for her but she does have stamina to prove. Grading D
Minellacelebration – Has form figures of 1121 on The Mildmay course here but has been unsuccessful in two previous attempts over these fences. In fairness, he was very unlucky last time here when unshipping his jockey on the flat and may not have enjoyed the soft ground the time before. Will certainly relish the better underfoot conditions here and, although yet to fully prove his stamina for this trip, he wasn’t stopping when victorious in The Summer Cup at Uttoxeter, over 3m 2f, last July. Has had wind surgery since his last run and, if able to transfer his Mildmay form to this track, could run a big race at generous odds.
Grading B
Canelo – Another horse to have won over the Mildmay course, Alan King’s horse has improved this season for the application of cheekpieces. Looked progressive when winning at Wetherby in The Rowland Meyrick but his form has rather levelled off since and his stamina did appear to give out in both The Skybet Chase and The Grimthorpe so this extreme distance does not look to be what he wants. JP McManus has better chances in the race. Grading C
The Long Mile – Finished 3rd in The Bobbyjo Chase last time but that was his first try at 3 miles or beyond and he was ridden to get the trip so, with all of his wins coming over a much shorter distance, there has to be a big question mark about his stamina. He is still only a 7 year-old and no horse of that age has won this race since 1940. Lots of questions to answer. Grading D
Give Me A Copper – Has not been an easy to train but Paul Nicholls has always thought of him as a ‘National horse’. He is very lightly-raced for an 11 year-old and his last win came in November 2109 when, as a tip for us, he won The Badger Ales Chase at Wincanton. The decent ground was a help that day and connections will be pleased to see the lack of rain in recent weeks. His jumping can be a bit in and out at times but he does look to be well-handicapped and, if taking to this track and the fences, he could run a good race at big odds.
Grading B
Farclas – The 2018 Triumph Hurdle winner bids to emulate Tiger Roll in winning this race after also winning that race for juveniles. Has performed quite well since switching to fences last season but is yet to prove himself over 3 miles plus. He is another who will like the ground conditions, has a nice low weight, and, on jockey bookings, looks the number one contender from the stable. Grading C
Minella Times – Well supported in the last week, this 8 year-old represents the trainer-jockey combination that dominated at Cheltenham. He is another who is yet to win over 3 miles but has shaped as though he needs further in recent runs. Looks a bit short in the betting for a horse yet to prove himself over extended trips. Grading C
Sub Lieutenant – Now a veteran, he was a high-class chaser when with Gigginstown but has shown that he retains some ability in both of his outings for current connections. Finished 2nd over these fences in The Topham in 2019 but has only ever won once beyond 3 miles. Runs off a 9lb lower mark than in The Topham, and his jockey has tasted success over these fences, but he is 4lbs ‘wrong’ here and faces a stiff task. There would not be many better stories than this one, however, were he to triumph. Grading C
Hogan’s Height -An impressive winner over these fences in the 2019 running of The Grand Sefton but has not shown much in his 3 runs since. He has clearly been campaigned with this race in mind, however, and, if seeing out the trip, the way he took to these fences last time augurs well for a good run. Grading B
Double Shuffle – Hard to believe he’s still only 11 as seems to have been around for many years. Well handicapped on some of his old form but has not taken to this venue on his two previous starts over the fences. He clearly failed to stay in this race in 2017 when pulled up and was down the field in The Topham two years later. Hard to make a case for him. Grading D
Ami Desbois – More than 3 years since his last win but he is a dependable jumper and has run reasonably well in his two races this season after nearly a year off. He is yet to win over further than 3 miles and his current odds fairly reflect his chance. Grading D
Blacklion – Sent off favourite for the 2017 renewal of this race, when he finished 4th, and was brought down at the first fence the following year but in between he bolted up at short-odds in The Becher Chase. His ability over the fences is, therefore, proven but he’s had injury issues since and changed trainers a couple of times and is not the force he was. Grading D
Verdict:
Luck will always play a big part in this race, with 40 runners setting off, but there are not as many with very good chances as you might think in such a big field. The obvious one is, of course, CLOTH CAP and if his price were to get bigger than 6/1 he would become an each-way bet but, at the current odds, he is only worth a win ‘saver’ and I wouldn’t put anybody off that tactic.
For each-way purposes, however, I am going to recommend 3 horses from my Grade A list as ‘tracker’ half-point e/w selections and, given the enhanced places on offer, a couple of ¼ e/w picks from the horses at bigger prices graded B in the above list, so 4 points staked in total.
My idea of the top 5 is as follows:-
1. BURROWS SAINT has had his mark protected by his excellent trainer in readiness for this and he is a horse whose jumping style looks to be suitable for the test that this race produces now. He will like the drying ground and owner, trainer and jockey all combined to win The Topham over these fences on Friday.
2. POTTERS CORNER is another to have had his mark protected ahead of this and with proven stamina on his side this trip should hold no fears. He has blinkers on for the first time and a nice low weight.
3. DISCORAMA is another who has stamina on his side and he has had a wind operation since his last run. He’s a consistent sort who runs well fresh and, although the ground is a slight question mark, he should be staying on when others have cried enough.
4. MINELLACELEBRATION represents a bit of a swing of the bat at huge odds but his record on The Mildmay Course is excellent and horses, such as Mon Mome, who have run well on the conventional course in the past have subsequently performed well in The Grand National. The ground looks ideal, he has had wind surgery, and the way he hit the like in Uttoxeter’s big staying chase last summer offers hope that he can see out the trip
5. ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS is more than three times the price of stablemate Burrows Saint and, if I fancy that one, I have to give him strong consideration at the current odds as his form ties in very well with him. He just gets the nod over BRISTOL DE MAI as the last selection.
I hope you all enjoy the race and that, even if you don’t like my selections, the short analysis of each horse can help you find the right picks for you. Let’s hope we have some success but, most of all, let’s hope that all of the brave athletes, both human and equine, come back safely and that the race is reported in the mass media for all the right reasons.
Good Luck!