A competitive race and one in which I narrowed the 12 down to 4 most likely value contenders. 

 

Justus arrives as the one to beat off the back of a 2 mile win last time but at the restrictive price I think there is better value. The balance of known form suggests that Crescent Lake is better so far on the AW and I think that Champagne City will find it harder to nick this from the front like it did so well at Pontefract last time out.Havaila brings NH fitness and could be on a nice Flat mark based on a few juvenile runs for Sir Michael Stoute and is worth TRACKING forwards.

 

I think that the most likely improver here is CANDY SHACK for the Cole yard. a 4 year old on only its 5th run and a run at Newbury suggests this is a nice early mark to exploit. GRANDMASTER FLASH brings AW and NH fitness to the table and if you go back 3 seasons to Turf in Ireland this does look like a very appealing Handicap mark.

 

Whilst those would be the main selections in the 12 runner field a couple of others to note, Geelong will likely benefit from seasonal debut and the step up in trip should see this one winning races soon, hopefully not today but one to TRACK too. The one who may be worth a small bet at decent longer odds is EAST END GIRL who has been running on AW and over Hurdles, following a 2 year break the ability is clearly still there to a degree and the horse is very well handicapped on pre lay off turf form.