The Cesarewitch Trial is a typically competitive race an the first conundrum is who can stay the trip,

who is well handicapped and who can handle the big field. However, being a "Trial" there is also one other key ingredient.

There are some here who will simply be looking to have a good run in order to ensure they are fit and tuned up for the 

actual race later on in The Autumn. The types who will be looking to protect handicap marks rather than enhance them.

There are then those who actually need a big run and a place at least to get an handicap hike to qualify for the big race.

The most progressive horse and the biggest potential improver in the race is Alan King's COEUR DE LION; he really

needs to win and get an 8-10lbs hike to qualify for the big race and if he does that, with expected progression he would

be a live contender on the big day. My logic is therefore simple, back the horse who "needs" to win rather than pick a

horse who may not "want" to win, as by doing so, they could effectively compromise their chances in the Cesarewitch 

itself in a few weeks time. With enhanced odds the 6/1 does not look skinny and is actually cracking e/w value.