This has become a standard feature of the Meeting and in terms of Going and Draw bias they invariably split in to 2 Groups but recent evidence of good Going is the those down the centre possibly have a small advantage, but it can be crucial which way in the early split they go with the near side marginally preferred. There isn't here a great benefit of being drawn very high or very low which we see on many straight tracks.

 

I'm looking for experience of these big field races, a proven bit of form if possible over Course and Distance and also beginning to look at horses that tend to peak in the Autumn.

 

I narrowed the 25 down to a short working list of 9 horses, so lets whittle those down.

 

Abstemious is an intriguing 3 year old, possible improver for Nigel Tinkler and seems to possibly have an ideal pitch in Stall 13. It's not a race you'd normally associate with an improving 3 year old but a big danger I think. Dark Defender at a very big price is one I am very wary of as it's due a big run. Very nice mark but a draw in 22 just puts me off and I think there are better options around it. Helvertian is a bit of an intriguing one too, again, a perfect pitch possibly in Stall 11 but lacks the vital bit of big field experience but a bold show would not surprise.Flying Pursuit is very well handicapped, races up with the pace and due a win, probably the hardest to leave out and only Stall 24 puts me off. Finally, Roundhay Park who has been in very good form for a while, winning once and runner up twice and again that draw in 21 is the only niggle.

 

If any of those win or go very close, especially if high draw does dominate, then I'll take it on the chin, it'll hit the pocket but prove it's my interpretation of the analysis, rather than the analysis that's at fault, and that's something I'm always happy to accept.

 

So where does the money go.

 

MUSIC SOCIETY is the Nap of the race so a full 1 point each way. Won this last year, 1lb higher, draw very similar, is in Stall 7 and just looked primed for the race by Tim Easterby. Of course you need luck in running but I'll be very disappointed if not bang in contention.

 

Captain Jameson ran well here in 2019 and a few times. Drawn in Stall 6 for John Quinn and Jason Hart, prominent running style could be ideal for the selection to run off and I think that pace will take CJ well in to the race and a place at least. Medecine Jack drawn in 20 for Roger Fell is a very nice price, runner up here in June off 75, then ran similarly well at York off 76, gets in off 79 but that still strikes me as being a nice handicap mark and one I fancy a lot. Finally at bigger odds and draw 17 so can possible come down the centre wing of either group is Paddy Power for Richard Fahey. At first sight is out of form but ran well enough in this in 2019 to think this mark really will deliver a win at some point and possibly primed for this as a bit of an Autumn horse we need to start tracking and following.