Ffos Llas 12.30
Ffos Llas 12.30 4 Steel Native - 1/2 point win @ 4/1 / 2 Deckers Delight - 1/4 point e/w @ 25/1
An intriguing little race over two and a half miles and some excellent Conditionals ride here. The market is dominated
by a couple, like a few of my colleagues, I want to take on any Olly Murphy horse as they are being over-bet and in many cases
over-hyped and in Hurricane Rita we have a good example, I'm not saying it won't win but it is 12 lbs above its last winning mark
and at 2/1 that makes it vulnerable and of no value in my book. The same logic can be applied to Flanagans Field, equally
consistent but also a stone or more above a winning mark and could be better at shorter. I think this pair may try to take each
other on for the lead and set it up for a dour stayer, and this is FFOS LLAS and the Going is Heavy.
STEEL NATIVE reverts to Hurdles off a nice mark; young son of a great father is in the saddle and making a name for himself;
he will need the leaders to get the pace wrong but doubt anything (bar possibly one other) will pass more in the final 2 furlongs
and I think the horse will be ridden that way. Those that just get the fractions wrong here can end up running on the spot and at
4/1 STEEL NATIVE is better value to win that the other 2 named already and if you want to play ultra conservative an each way
poke to nothing. Asking Questions has decent P2P from but in better Going; Princess Roania is probably the biggest danger
on form but the Going seems a bit too heavy on what we know, but one who caught my eye is DECEKERS DELIGHT.
DECKERS DELIGHT is 25/1 and that reflects last 3 runs. However go back almost exactly a year and she won in nice
style at Hereford, staying on in a battle over 3 miles in bad ground. She is back on that win mark and has other form at
this trip and further to suggest that if fit from seasonal debut, can play a bigger part than the odds suggest. It may be she
will still need the run but if she is still involved round the final turn, keep an eye on a strong finish, I do like to follow these
mares in the same period as when they have previously run to their marks and won or run very well. Speculative hence the
stakes suggested, in what is probably the least poorest race with a betting opportunity anywhere today.