The world’s most famous race takes centre stage this week-end and, whilst it may not be the test it once was, it is still one of the finest spectacles in sport.

 

It is a contest with such a rich tapestry of history and each and every one of us will have our favourite memories. For me, I will never forget, as a child, cheering on my favourite horse at the time, RED RUM, as he won the race 3 times then there was ALDINITI winning in 1981 when ridden by Bob Champion to cap a remarkable comeback to health for both horse and jockey and, of course, to write a script so good they made it into a film. More recently, we saw MON MOME win the race at 100/1 in 2009, when I was lucky enough to have backed it, and as close a finish as you will ever see a few years later when NEPTUNE COLLONGES got up to win by a nose in the last strides of the race. Last year, of course, we saw another close and exciting finish and the 2 major combatants from that day re-join battle here.

 

No doubt, there will be some kind of story behind the winner this year (there always is) but, first and foremost, let’s hope that all participants, human and equine, return home safely.

 

A maximum of 40 horses are set to get go to post and here’s how they line up:-

 

ANIBALE FLY – Without a win since taking The Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown in December 2017 but finds himself 5lbs higher than when a creditable 4th in this race last year. That came after he had finished 3rd in The Cheltenham Gold Cup and this year he went one better when finishing 2nd in that race, finishing very strongly indeed. Like many in here, he has had a light campaign but has been running over inadequate trips prior to his Gold Cup run. This looks to be more his type of race, and he is no forlorn hope to make the frame once more, but it will be difficult carrying top weight and he won’t want the ground to dry out too much.

 

VALTOR – He is another horse who, perhaps, would not want the ground to dry out much more. He only arrived from France this year and put in an impressive performance to win a listed contest, at Ascot, on his British debut. He has only been seen once since, when pulling up at Cheltenham in January, and this looks a tough task.

 

TIGER ROLL – The first of 11 runners in here for Gordon Elliott but, whatever the rights and wrongs of one trainer having so many entrants, this one undoubtedly deserves his place. He is, of course, attempting to defend his crown and become the first horse since the legendary Red Rum to win consecutive Nationals. The race is not what it was back in ‘Rummy’s’ day but it will still be some feat were he to carry it off. He is 9lbs higher in the ratings this year but does seem to be in better form and was very impressive in sauntering to victory in The Cross Country event at Cheltenham. That was the same preparation as last year and he is now 8lbs well-in following his Cheltenham win. Whilst he is sure to run another fine race, and it’s difficult to pick holes in his form which makes him the one they have to beat, his odds are now extremely short for a race like this. 

 

OUTLANDER – Was sold by Gigginstown on Thursday and out of Gordon Elliott’s stable. That in itself may be an indication as to his chances here and, although he was formerly very smart, winning Grade 1 chases at both Leopardstown and Down Royal, he has looked a shadow of his former self in the last 12 months or so. He, also, has his stamina to prove.

 

DON POLI – He is another sold out of Elliott’s stable on Thursday and now bids to fill the void left by the absence of Blaklion for Phil Kirby. A couple of years ago, it is possible that this lad would have been favourite for a race like this, especially on the mark he finds himself now, but after injury and a long lay-off, he looks to have lost plenty of his old spark. He was never the quickest horse but was a relentless galloper who finished off his races really well and, whilst he has some good form at Aintree, his winning here came over The Mildmay course and he didn’t really seem to enjoy the experience when trying these fences for the first time in The Becher Chase in December.

 

GO CONQUER – Comes here after winning The Skybet Chase at Doncaster in January. He is usually a very good jumper but can throw in the odd big error. He may want the ground to dry out somewhat more than is likely and there is still a doubt over his stamina.

 

MALA BEACH – Another Gordon Elliott runner. The recent rain looks to be in his favour and he has got winning form beyond 3 miles. He was, however, pulled up on his only attempt at beyond 3 ½ miles, in The Irish National 3 years ago, and looks held by Jury Duty on his last run when he finished 2nd at Down Royal. Jamie Codd takes the ride, though, and there will be no more capable pilot in the race.

 

MINELLA ROCCO – He was the subject of a huge gamble in The Ultima Chase at Cheltenham but, in the end, ran no sort of race at all and was pulled up. That just about sums up this inconsistent horse whose lofty reputation belies the fact that he has only ever won 1 chase from 15 starts. That win, however, did come in the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham so he does have stamina in his locker, whilst he was also a staying-on 2nd in the 2017 Gold Cup. The recent rain is against him, and Barry Geraghty did prefer Anibale Fly before he got injured falling in The Topham, but he may just be the type that gets the best brought out of him by these fences. He was set to carry top weight in this last year before being withdrawn, due to the heavy ground, and is 7lbs lower this year.

 

LAKE VIEW LAD – Connections would have loved seeing all the rain fall on Thursday and Friday morning for this improving 9 year-old. He was a very good winner of The Rowland Meyrick Chase at Wetherby, at Christmas, and then ran an excellent race when staying on strongly for 3rd place in The Ultima at Cheltenham under top-weight. His owner loves having runners in this race and has won it on several occasions. It will be a big day for the trainer, who has never had a runner in this before, and this lad is no forlorn hope.

 

PLEASANT COMPANY – This is his 3rd attempt at the race and, having completed in 9th place in 2017, he was a very game runner-up last year, beaten only by a head, and would have won in a stride or two more (much to my personal agony!). He is 2lbs better off this time around with Tiger Roll and relishes plenty of cut in the ground and, yet, he is currently available at more than 4 times the price of the favourite. He has only had one chase start this season and will have, undoubtedly, had his season geared around this. Ruby Walsh rides a stable-mate but that means that Paul Townend gets the leg-up which, as we saw at Cheltenham, is far from a negative and he had a winner over these big fences on Friday. He has won 1 of his 2 rides on the horse too. As last year, the hood is left off and another bold bid looks on the cards for a horse who is yet to fall or unseat in 18 starts over obstacles.

 

BALLYOPTIC – He had a decent season as a Novice last year, as he beat the likes of Elegant Escape and Vintage Clouds, and it culminated in a very close 2nd place in The Scottish National (again, much to my personal agony!) after a good run in what was a strong RSA Chase at Cheltenham. This season has been less successful, however, and his jumping frailties have re-surfaced in a couple of races. He fell in The Becher Chase and was pulled-up last time at Haydock, in the trial race, but in between he ran a very good race in The Welsh National when finishing 6th. That race, plus last year’s Scottish equivalent, shows that stamina is not an issue and, although fairly versatile ground-wise, he won’t mind the recent rain.

 

DOUNIKOS – Has only completed 3 times in his last 7 starts, which is hardly encouraging for a race like this, but he did win over 3 ½ miles at Punchestown on his last run and saw out the trip well. Another one of the Elliott entries and the talented Jack Kennedy takes the ride.

 

RATHVINDEN – He is a very consistent performer and, with just one run so far this season, has clearly had his campaign aimed at this. His only run was a successful one, at Fairyhouse, and came after the weights had been revealed so he is officially 8lbs well in. He has been a fragile horse over the years but has some good form. He won the 4 mile National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last year, proving his stamina, but he did finish quite distressed that day after a gruelling battle with Ms Parfois. The race he won in February is one used by his trainer when successfully preparing a horse for this race in the past (Hedgehunter). He is the choice of Ruby Walsh and is sure to be well supported in the market.

 

ONE FOR ARTHUR – He was the hero of this in 2017 but then missed last year’s renewal due a tendon injury. He is 6lbs higher than when victorious in the race and has unseated his jockey in both his starts so far this term. The trainer says that he is now training like his old self again but you are going to have to take it on trust that he can re-produce back at this venue. If successful, he will be the first horse since Red Rum to re-gain the National crown.

 

ROCK THE KASBAH – His trainer has made no secret of the fact that this has been the season-long plan for this talented horse. He has not always been the most fluent of jumpers and there has to be a stamina doubt over this trip. He finished 2nd in last season’s Bet365 Cup, over 3miles 5 furlongs, behind Step Back, when wearing first-time cheekpieces, but he was very tired at the finish. Richard Johnson has never won this race and I’m not sure this is the one to finally end that drought.

 

WARRIORS TALE – This horse is a solid, consistent performer who won over these fences in December when claiming The Grand Sefton in soft ground. That trip would have suited him well and this extreme test, albeit in heavy ground, seemed to find him out last year when he was pulled up. He is another one for Trevor Hemmings but looks to be the third-string.

 

REGAL ENCORE – He ran in this race 2 years ago, finishing a respectable 8th, but never really got into contention. He was set to go last year but was a late non-runner due to some abnormal blood tests. He has only had one run over fences this term and ran well to finish 3rd at Ascot, despite losing a shoe, tiring late on. He is 2lbs higher this year and does seem to reserve his best for Ascot with 2 of his 3 chase wins coming at that track. He does have, however, a touch of class and it would not surprise me to see him out-run his current odds and sneak a place.

 

MAGIC OF LIGHT – She is an improved mare who won a listed mares-only contest earlier this season at Newbury but has never raced beyond 3miles 1furlong and is well held by a couple of these on her running in The Ultima Chase at Cheltenham.

 

A TOI PHIL – This horse caught my eye in The Pertemps Hurdle at Cheltenham, where he finished 5th, in a manner reminiscent of the run put in by Pineau De Re 5 years ago just before he went on to triumph in The National. Better known as a chaser, this horse was ultra-consistent last year although he has failed to hit the heights this term. He has never won over 3 miles and, whilst years ago there was an adage that you needed a good 2 ½ mile horse to win this race, the race these days, over the modified fences, lends itself more to out and out stayers as they tend to go a good gallop from the off and he has a big question mark over him in regards to stamina. That said, he looks to be fairly handicapped and he is a sound jumper.

 

JURY DUTY – Won the American Grand National Hurdle earlier this season and, then, ran a very good race to beat Mala Beach at Down Royal last month when giving him 10lbs. That was over 3miles 2 furlongs and the only time he attempted a distance close to this was in last year’s National Hunt Chase where he was on the retreat when unseating his rider two from home. That was not the first time his stamina had appeared to give way and that is my big worry as, other than that, he looks to be stronger this year, is unexposed over staying trips and is a sound jumper. He also gets the services of Robbie Power who won this race for the stable 12 years ago.

 

NOBLE ENDEAVOUR – Yet another Elliott representative, this horse finished 6th in The Irish National in 2017 before being off the track for 600 days. He returned in The Becher Chase here in December and that race may well have been a ‘sighter’ with this contest in mind. He wasn’t given an overly-hard time and came home in 9th place. He missed an intended engagement at The Dublin Festival in February, as the ground was too quick, but then was an ‘eye-catcher’ for me in The Ultima where he was given a ‘gentle’ ride in mid-division for much of the contest then ran on well up the hill under hands and heels. That outing should put him spot on for this and his performance in the 4 mile National Hunt Chase in 2017 gives encouragement that stamina should not be an issue. He was creeping into contention that day before falling 2 out and looked set to place at least. He looks a good sporting each-way bet to me at the current odds for this.

 

MONBEG NOTORIOUS – He won 3 times in his novice season but has found things a lot tougher this time around. He was won at just over 3 miles but has seemed to struggle at the extra distance on both occasions he has raced any further. 

 

RAMSES DE TEILLEE – Only a 7 year-old but has run a number of excellent races in staying chases. His connections would have been delighted with the rain that was falling throughout Thursday and into Friday and they will not want the ground to dry out too much. That said, he followed up his excellent 2nd place in The Welsh National with another runner-up spot in the Haydock trial on good ground. He is likely to race prominently and, although this may be a year too early for him, he has sound chances of making the frame.

 

TEA FOR TWO – Won a Grade 1 on this card 2 years ago and, based on that, looks to be very well handicapped. However, he has not looked the same horse in the last 12 months or so and has never struck me as a horse who needs this extreme test. 

 

JUST A PAR – Managed to sneak into the race at the 11th hour when Mall Dini was declared a non-runner and has an opportunity to take on these fences for a 5th time in his career. It is, also, his 2nd race for his new stable with his stable debut coming in The Becher Chase when finishing 7th. He ran in this race twice when in the care of Paul Nicholls and, although down the field, he did complete both times which gives hope that he will get round once more.

 

STEP BACK – This lightly-raced 9 year-old was an impressive winner of The Bet 365 Chase at Sandown last April and has been aimed at this race ever since. On the face of it, he ran a little disappointingly in both starts this season but I doubt he was fully wound-up for either of those races and connections, who have proved they can prepare a staying chaser to win a big contest, will have him ready here. There is a worry that he has a tendency to jump a little right at his fences but The National Course is anything but tight and, with the exception of The Canal Turn, it shouldn’t be too much of an issue. Stamina looked his forte at Sandown and his biggest drawback, for me, is inexperience. if overcoming that, he could get them all at it from the front.

 

ULTRAGOLD – An Aintree specialist with 2 wins, a runners-up spot and a 3rd place in the 4 starts over these fences so he has to be respected on that basis. Those runs, obviously, all came over shorter than this and stamina is the big concern. Connections have tried him over further this season, at both Warwick and in The Cross-Country at Cheltenham, and there was nothing in either race to dispel any of the doubts about this trip.

 

BLOW BY BLOW – Another Gordon Elliott/Gigginstown horse and one who won The Martin Pipe Hurdle race at last year’s Cheltenham Festival. He is yet to win over 3 miles, either over hurdles or fences, and was given a wind op just 3 weeks ago.

 

UP FOR REVIEW – Was running an excellent race in The Ultima Chase before making a mistake 3 out and he faded up the hill. Before that he had run a decent race in The Thyestes when finishing 3rd behind the ill-fated Invitation Only and he runs off the same mark here. He is unexposed as a staying chaser and has a nice low weight here.

 

SINGLEFARMPAYMENT – This is a horse who often promises so much yet rarely delivers as his record of 1 win from 14 chase starts indicates. He often finds one too good and has finished 2nd in 5 of those chase starts. This is his first try over a marathon trip and he is a highly-strung individual so may get troubled by the preliminaries here and the noise that can be generated under the tunnel the horses walk through on the way out to the track.

 

VIEUX LION ROUGE – Has completed on all 6 of his runs over these fences, including 3 in this race, and ran a fine race in The Becher Chase, a race he has won in the past, in December to finish 2nd after a wind op last summer. He has been pulled-up in both starts subsequently but these fences should bring out the best in him once more. The stable are in good form at the moment but this trip has always looked beyond him and no reason why it should be any different again. 

 

VALSEUR LIDO – This 10 year-old was formerly high-class and has Grade 1 wins to his name. He ran in this race last year and finished 8th. He hugged the inside all the way round on that occasion and was prominent for much of the way. He faded in the last couple of furlongs, in the heavy ground, but it was a run full of promise after a very fallow period for the horse. He carried 11st 7lbs last year but has been dropped 12lbs in the ratings this year and this time around only has to shoulder 10st 6lbs. Henry de Bromhead looks to have campaigned him with a view to ‘managing’ his handicap mark this year and, with the excellent Rachael Blackmore in the saddle, he could go well at very big odds. Stamina was the issue last year, and it may be again, but he has less weight and the ground will not be as testing which should help him get home.

 

VINTAGE CLOUDS – I will declare an interest here in that I backed this horse ante-post several months ago and I was delighted to see him run such a big race in The Ultima at Cheltenham following wind surgery. He just missed the cut last year, much to the annoyance of the trainer’s husband, Harvey Smith, but gets his chance this year after more improvement during the season. He ran a good race to finish 3rd in The Scottish National last April and has finished 4th in a Welsh National in the past so we know stamina is no issue. His jumping has not always been the most fluent and he does tend to come off the bridle quite early in his races but he always seems to keep finding as was shown when runner-up in The Ultima. My one worry is that he always seems to run his best races after a break, and he has had only just over 3 weeks to get over the exertions of Cheltenham, but he is in good hands and is now 5lbs well-in following that Cheltenham run.

 

GENERAL PRINCIPLE – Won The Irish National 12 months ago and that race has been a decent guide to this one in the past. He ran a good race to finish 3rd in the race won by Dounikos at Punchestown but then blundered away his chances last time at Cheltenham. He is another favoured by soft ground and won’t want it to dry out too much.

 

LIVELOVELAUGH – Hasn’t obviously been crying out for this step up in trip and certainly didn’t shape that way at Cheltenham last time. Hard to see him in the shake-up.

 

WALK IN THE MILL – Won The Becher Chase here in December, having just missed out on a run in this race last year when falling lame on the morning of the race. Has run just twice since that Becher win and both came over hurdles. He is 7lbs higher than for that win and he does like plenty of juice in the ground so he is another who would have welcomed the rain this week. He shaped as if this test will be no problem and, off a nice low weight, is a serious contender.

 

FOLSOM BLUE – Veteran staying chaser who relishes a real slog in testing ground. He often loses his position in races and finds himself too far behind before finishing past beaten horses on the run-in. He can’t afford to get too far back here and his chances would be better if it had kept raining all week-end and if they had to run round another circuit of the track!

 

CAPTAIN REDBEARD – Has put in some creditable performances over the past 2 seasons but has not really flourished in 3 attempts over these fences so far. His best attempt was in The Grand Sefton of 2017, when an unlucky 6th, but he unshipped his rider early on in last year’s National and, other than in his pointing days, has never won over 3 miles so stamina an obvious concern.

 

BLESS THE WINGS – This 14 year-old has been a grand servant for both Alan King and his current trainer Gordon Elliott. He was placed 3rd in this last year and gets in here off the same mark. A similar result would be remarkable for this veteran, and looks unlikely, although it would be no surprise to see him finish again albeit in his own time.

 

JOE FARRELL – He was the narrow winner of last year’s Scottish National, in that close finish with Ballyoptic, and sneaks in here at the foot of the weights following the late defection of one of Willie Mullins’ entrants. He missed much of the season, after that Ayr win, and has had a bit of a race against time to get here. He clearly needed the run 5 weeks ago, when down the field in a Veterans Chase at Newbury, but ran a creditable race last time out, just 14 days ago, back there when finishing 2nd in a handicap chase over 3miles 2 furlongs. He is still unexposed as a staying chaser and could run well providing this doesn’t come too soon after his 2 races following a long lay-off.

 

 

 

Conclusion:

 

If he puts in a clear round, TIGER ROLL is the one they all have to beat and he will be a really popular winner should he prevail. In a race of this nature, however, I cannot put up a horse at that price and if he wins I will give due credit and accept it. The angle I would rather play, with 5 and, in many cases, 6 places being offered is to look for some each-way value with horses who, if they hit the frame, will give us a decent little profit and, if they win, will produce an excellent return.

 

With 40 set to go to post, it is worth having a dabble on 4 at double figure prices and those 4 for me are:-

 

NOBLE ENDEAVOUR

PLEASANT COMPANY

VINTAGE CLOUDS

VALSUEUR LIDO

 

1st reserve in case of a non-runner – STEP BACK 

SEAN ANALYSIS-:

So many Irish runners and a lot from the Elliott yard, some I think aimed at this race and some here for the day out with marks that reflect past rather than current form. Yeah I want an Irish winner but I do think they have to look at limiting Entries by trainer or Owner to a more sensible 5 or 6 or we will soon end up with 30 of the runners from 3-4 Yards and 3-4 owners.

 

I think the best IRISH hope is obviously TIGER ROLL you have to have a win saver on him even at those odds. RATHVINDEN would be my each way NAP as proven at this kind of trip and campaigned to arrive here fresh and fit. He can battle as he proven at Cheltenham last year running on to the point of exhaustion and I think he is the one they all have to beat if Tiger Roll does not storm home. DOUNIKOS is a horse I have followed all winter, sometimes he has delivered, sometimes not. There is a cracking horse in there somewhere and I think he will be very dangerous if getting in to a nice rhythm. I agree very much with David's assessment of VALSEUR LIDO as a live dark horse and what a story it would be for Rachel Blackmore and Henry De Bromhead. My final pick though would be UP FOR REVIEW who comes here a bit under the radar for the Mullins yard. He has to prove stamina but a horse who can travel very smoothly, be switched off and if he jumps The Chair going well in midfield and off the bridle, one who could give you a sporting run "in running"...

 

My picks-:

 

RATHVINDEN

DOUNIKOS

UP FOR REVIEW

 

Robin is very keen each way on STEP BACK and very similar views to David on that one. He also thinks WALK IN THE MILL a sporting e/w British chance.

Many will want a win saver on TIGER ROLL and may be sensible way to cover the stakes on others....