Friday 6th April
Good Morning
We finally get to see a bit of green turf, and no doubt some sticky mud, and some Hurdles today at Fontwell. There is not much quality;
nor indeed quantity on the Card, but with the BHA (to give them credit where it is due) arranging some extra NH meetings on Sunday;
Monday and Tuesday, I have no doubt, that over the next 4-5 days, in the lead up to Aintree, we will have some juicy big field, lower
Grade Handicaps to attack, and that is the type of race where we have done very well all winter.
Looking at the Card, there are 11 runner Handicaps at 2.05 and 4.15 today and although nothing is considered strongly enough today to
"tip"; there are a couple who look very nice each way material, honed to conditions; who look ideal "mentions" so we will ease our way back
in via that route. A number have asked "what to stake" on Mentions. To be honest, that is entirely up to you, you should have a Unit Stake
that you apply to 1 point and therefore easily split when we advise 1/2 point but in terms of mentions, I would never go above 1/4 point but
that should be seen as a "ceiling". We have, as you saw in the Results round up started to itemise and proof/report mentions and they are
doing very well, but staking should always be in the hands of the person placing the bet, so PLEASE find a level that you feel comfortable
with, based against your chosen 1 point Unit level; and factored down, and my only advice would be around the 1/4 point ceiling mark.
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MENTIONS
Fontwell 2.05 7 Thundering Home @ 9/1 / 6 Westerbee @ 18/1 - each way
(if you want a Tricast option look at Kastani Beach)
Fontwell 4.15 5 Hit The Highway @ 13/2 / 2 Present Times @ 7/1 - each way
(if you want a Tricast option look at Camron De Chaillac)
(CAUTION in staking - see above given the likely "gluey mud" and return to racing after a barren week for NH)
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The Logic-:
There are 3 near/at the top of the market, Goldslinger (a Moore bandit horse possibly); High Wells and Dragon Khan who are
ex-flat horses, and I'm not sure at the cramped odds that any will be suited by the trip or the conditions. If they are able to get
through the mud, they are obvious dangers. THUNDERING HOME is not the horse it was but every horse can find a mark it can
win off, when conditions suit. There is a notion that this is a Good ground horse, but delve back 3-4 years and it was winning
on soft and heavy at far tougher tracks than this, and if they go off too quickly, can play a part. I'm sure there is ore to come
from Newquay Cards and Kastani Beach has enough form on this Going to play a part too, but lurking at the bottom of the
market is WESTERBEE. Once highly thought of, won a nice Maiden at Lingfield on soft, beat a few horses there like Champagne
To Go and Daytime Ahead (who won for us lto); who would be top of the market here. WESTERBEE ran out in to rail being short
of room in race following that win, then slipped up and just seems to be an unlucky horse. They go for headgear here and IF
it could have luck in running, may yet be one that like Thundering Home has found the right race on the right day.
In the 4.15 again stamina and Going are key considerations and not sure again about 3 at top of market at this trip, Norse
Legend, Great Tempo and Deebaj (another potential Moore bandit); look better over shorter. The 2 with nothing to prove
over the trip in bad ground are HIT THE HIGHWAY who is stepped back from 3 miles and PRESENT TIMES who could actually
be on a stonking mark; if you excuse the cut leg as the reason for an unusually poor run last time out. For a possible Tricast
Perm, I think that Camron De Chaillac, has very similar profile to the 2 mentioned as picks and should be bang in contention
and right at the bottom of the market, Mighty Vic could be one to watch in running and one for long term trackers.
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